Southerners cannot afford to sit idle by another year. The PLC can no longer remain an obstacle if political parties want to retain their presence along the liberated governorates.

Fernando Carvajal (South24) 

Last week, New York welcomed thousands of diplomats for the opening of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA 79). Among the visiting delegations, Yemen arrived with over twenty officials, among which was Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) co-vice president Aidrous Al-Zubaidi, President of the Southern Transitional Council (STC). This was his second time attending as member of the official Yemeni delegation, further placing the South Issue firmly on the international stage. Al-Zubaidi’s presence is more than mere optics, his inclusion is vital to advancing Southern grievances and assuring millions throughout South Yemen that the STC’s priority is to represent them on the world’s stage. 

Last year, negotiations over including STC president Al-Zubaidi among the official Yemen delegation generated tension across the board; within the PLC, within the Coalition and even threats from Sanaa-based Houthis. The opposition was clearly rooted in a long standing position where the ‘South Issue’ remained at the margins of the ten year civil war rather than at the core of the conflict at a national level. Opposition to inclusion of the STC, a vital component of the PLC with three seats taken by STC officials, also contradicted the nature of the 2019 Riyadh Agreement calling for a unified front against Houthis. Any exclusion of the STC in the formal duties of the PLC, as the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG), would violate the letter and spirit of the agreement.

The major fear among STC rivals was precisely the elevating of the South Issue onto an international stage, beyond the sphere of the UN Special Envoy’s mandate. Furthermore, STC inclusion would risk added unpredictability as an outcome from direct interactions focused on the deeply rooted grievances across the eight liberated governorate of South Yemen. Perhaps this was also to serve as a wake-up call for the STC and ordinary Southerners, who have discovered how marginalized their position remains and how much reluctance there is across the UN system to address this vital component to any comprehensive peace in the Southwest of the Arabian Peninsula. The blunt reality confronted in New York in 2023 drove Southerners to close ranks, reinforce efforts to engage the international community and formulate a comprehensive strategy to overcome the stalemate faced by the UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg as consequence of the one-track process focused only on Houthi aggression.

Trajectory of Obstacles to Overcome 

Today, the story of South Yemen is no longer merely contained by the events of 1994. While the crisis remains driven by similar actors and intentions it is now exacerbated by new realities on the ground and the impact from regional and international conflicts. Southerners look upon an international community that has failed to adhere to principals of co-operation and conflict resolution, not merely ten years since placing Yemen under UN Chapter VII, but a year since STC president Aidrous Al-Zubaidi first stepped into the halls of the UN General Assembly in New York. 

A year ago, tensions escalated in the lead-up to preparations for a Yemeni delegation participating at the Opening of UNGA 78, particularly over the role of members of the STC. Members of the coalitions disagreed over delegation members, visas were delayed, and logistics were a huge problem. At that juncture, over a year since the PLC was established under a landmark agreement between members of the coalition and Houthi rivals, it was vital for recognition of the Southern contingent on a wider stage. It was also urgent for Southern leaders to show their base that the status quo was no longer acceptable. Unfortunately, since UNGA78 criticism of the STC grows from within the South, but now it’s as result of new challenges posed by policies that obstruct Southern ambitions, rather than as consequence of a lack of access to world powers such as the UN Security Council Permanent 5 (P5). 

Criticism and growing frustration within the South presently extends from deteriorating economic conditions across liberated areas. The STC security forces established a heightened security environment since late 2019, yet Houthi threats and lack of funding exacerbate conditions on the ground. According to UN agencies, “overall volume of food imports via all Yemeni seaports increased by nine percent from January to April 2024 [while] declining by 13 percent via the Southern ports of Aden and Mukalla.” Further data shows the deep impact on ordinary Southerners as “prices for petrol and diesel in IRG-controlled [Southern] areas remained high at unprecedented levels during April 2024, with increases of 21 percent and 19 percent, respectively.” 

While Southern forces improved security at the local level, politics and international actors continue to obstruct progress on the economy. A failure by the international community to address Houthi threats against oil infrastructure since October 2022 empowered Houthis to launch the ongoing aggression along the Red Sea. The population across the South are left to believe they are not a priority under the current political dynamics, urging the STC to implement self-administration of Southern governorate as in 2020.

As Houthis celebrate a decade since their coup against President Hadi’s government on 21 September 2014, no political or military actor has prioritized the territorial integrity of the Republic (Jumhuriyya). If no political actor will prioritize stability across liberated areas of South Yemen, the local forces and actors must take on the responsibility, with the international community recognizing their legitimacy and directly contributing to economic and security stability. The story of the STC is no longer bound by a peaceful resistance movement or public disobedience as espoused by Hirak, the realities on the ground have dramatically changed and expectations as far greater.

New Challenges to Confront 

For Southerners, two years under PLC rule have brought no positive change, with worsening economics and security threats from Houthis and AQAP. Economic policies under the PLC have failed to stabilize the Yemeni Rial across liberated areas, where the currency reached “an all-time low of YER1,900/USD by the end of Septmber 2024.” As new demands emerge for changes within the PLC, economic and political crises threaten to fuel new armed clashes across volatile areas in the South. 

After a decade of civil war, the international community must recognize the need to shift priorities and stabilize the liberated areas. Since the latest round of detentions of UN staff by Houthis in Sanaa this summer, a number of agencies announced projects for liberated areas, but these seem merely a short term focus as the UN and international organizations lack proper infrastructure to oversee long term projects. A snapshot by UN agencies noted that “around 3.6 million people in IRG-controlled areas with reduced rations due to funding shortages” and the “funding crisis could further impact the delivery of food assistance to nearly 2.5 million people in the South in the coming months unless additional funding is secured.”

Hope of Progress at UNGA 

STC president Aidrous Al-Zubaidi arrived in New York amid growing tensions and lack of clarity among P5 members. In absence of clear optimism, STC officials reiterate their commitment to advancing their primary agenda if parties continue to “[show] a lack of seriousness.” The STC presidency has also expressed willingness to continue working with Northern forces to combat the common enemy, the Houthis. Southern leaders have also made it clear to the US administration that Southern forces are ready to take on a wider role with US support against Houthis along various fronts, having been the only military forces to counter Houthi aggression in 2015 and again in 2022. Al-Zubaidi was clear in his address to the Security Council, “the solution of the issue of the people of the South comes naturally” but “requires effective leadership and participation at the international, regional and local levels to find a comprehensive approach and sufficient momentum to achieve peace.” Inclusion is vital and the timing is urgent. 

The STC cannot afford one more year amid the current impasse, where neither the UN or US Envoys have managed to get talks with Houthis back on a serious tracks, failing to complete the highly anticipated prisoner exchange in July. With a lack of success halting Red Sea strikes, lack of funding for humanitarian operations, higher market prices, lack of electricity, continued threats from AQAP and strikes from Houthis targeting Lahj and Yafa, Southerners cannot afford to sit idle by another year. The PLC can no longer remain an obstacle if political parties want to retain their presence along the liberated governorates.