The Yemeni-Egyptian Strategic Dialogue: Facts and Challenges

The Eighth round of the Yemeni-Egyptian Strategic Dialogue was held in Cairo at the end of June. The outcomes of this round have a number of indications. The most prominent of which is the timing of holding this edition, as the Seventh Round of the Dialogue was held in 2010. The holding of this round of the dialogue comes at a time of heightened political and security tensions in light of the Hamas attack and the Israeli war on Gaza since October 7 and the repercussions in the region. This is illustrated in the following points:

The term “Strategic Dialogue" is a foggy concept in light of the contexts and the level of interactions in international relationships. This is especially linked to the terms of the dialogue parties and participants, how to manage it, the issues under discussion, outcomes, and recommendations. There is also an increase in the trend of holding “strategic dialogue”, and its application based on the internal and regional contexts of the participating countries. Such dialogue aims at bridging the gap between the theoretical concept and the ongoing security and political transformations on the ground.

It is worth mentioning that “strategic dialogue” has become one of the most important wide-scale international traditions after the end of the Cold War. It is no longer limited to the central interactions among the major countries. It is extended to the relationships and interactions among the developing countries and the Third World’s states. Thus, this has led to the emergence of a problem related to the “bureaucracy of dialogue" and the desire by some academics to reconsider the concept and test its success in the field of international relationships. This is given the predominance of discussions about the conventional issues in a marginal way by the executive institutions. However, for holding dialogue at the strategic level, the two participating countries should have common interests regarding major political and security contexts, and it should be held at the level of decision-making leaders away from media propaganda.

Accordingly, the Yemeni-Egyptian Strategic Dialogue resumed after nearly 14 years since the last Seventh edition held in 2010. The first round of the dialogue was held in 1998. The dialogue aims to redraw the shared bilateral interests about the most important security files and the vital challenges facing them, as shown by analyzing the following narratives:

The Yemeni-Egyptian Strategic Dialogue included some vital issues on the talks agenda, in light of the current political and security implications and the likely future scenario, as shown below:

The Militarization of the Red Sea: The talks held during the Eighth round of the Yemeni-Egyptian Strategic Dialogue reflect the deep concerns of both parties about the heightened risks of the ongoing militarization of the Red Sea since the October 7 events, given the attacks by the Houthi militia on maritime navigation. The Houthis have been targeting commercial ships and American warships heading to Israel in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by using drones and anti-ship missiles, in addition to hijacking commercial ships. The Houthi attacks have had negative ramifications on navigation security and international trade, increasing the current global economic crisis. These attacks also led to the launch of the US-led multinational security operation ’Prosperity Guardian‘ on December 19, 2023. This security initiative includes the participation of some countries intending to defuse the situation and protect the maritime navigation in the Red Sea by what is known as “the militarization of the Red Sea”. 

The Hosting file: It is one of the most important challenges that face Cairo, given its geopolitical centrality and the surrounding flaming hotspots of conflicts that have pushed millions of displaced persons to move to Egypt. This was an important issue under discussion at the bilateral dialogue along with the legal status and the logistic arrangements for hosting Yemenis in Egypt. It is worth mentioning that Cairo ratified the “Asylum for Foreigners Law” and the subsequent establishment of the Permanent Committee for Refugees’ Affairs in June 2023. This aims at preparing accurate data about the number of refugees in Egypt, their nationalities, and the reasons behind asylum. This would contribute to providing support to those who deserve it. Moreover, the European bloc started moving toward the Egyptian approach in managing the “hosting file” by passing the ’Asylum and Migration Pact’ in April 2023 as a move toward reforming the asylum system in the European Union.

Troubled Environment: The current and possible challenges have contributed in reconsideration of the structural formula of the regional security’s arrangements, given the following challenges:

1- The Turmoil in the Region: The Egyptian-Yemeni strategic dialogue has discussed the future of the “region’s crises”, based on the developments of the security and field situations in Gaza after the so-called October 7 ‘Aqsa Storm‘ operation. This also related to the outcomes of the political situation in case of a likely scenario of expanding of the conflict fronts. This is related to the developments of the conflict in South Lebanon and the ongoing Houthi attacks south of the Red Sea. The US-led ’Prosperity Guardian‘ Operation has failed in disabling the Houthi attacks and ensuring the stability of the global trade traffic in the region’s waterways.

2- Confronting Terrorism and Extremist Groups: This is based on the 7th aim, “Egyptian peace and security”, of the Egyptian strategy ’Egypt Vision 2030‘. It stipulates that the state should give top priority to comprehensive security at the national and regional levels as an inevitable necessity to achieve and maintain sustainable development. This includes “ensuring food and water and sustainable energy, security, political, economic, social, and environmental stability, enhancing cyber security, protecting the Egyptian borders, and countering terrorism and organized crimes”. The bilateral strategic dialogue also discussed the mechanisms of encircling and besieging different terrorist organizations that pose an ongoing threat to all regional countries. This is based on the growing severity of the security turmoil in the Middle East, in a way that reproduces the pattern of terrorist organizations and their different arms. Therefore, the two sides had congruent views about the importance of focusing on the modern security approaches that complement regional and international efforts that parallel the qualitative development of terrorism actors. This is in addition to reviewing the traditional means and approaches, raising the theoretical and practical training level of the security institutions' staff in the country, engaging with their regional and international counterparts, and working to upgrade the training programs needed for dealing with the modern data and operational developments as well as the enhanced technologies that contribute to the improvement and development of different plans and strategies. This aims to increase the efficiency of security bodies in light of the modern qualitative changes in different terrorist organizations. This comes amid the escalation of the region’s security turmoil, especially after the October 7 events and the widening gap among the politically-troubled countries in the region. 

3- Balancing the Qualitative Threats: These threats are attributed to the so-called “non-traditional crises”. They have an indirect impact on the national and regional security, especially relating to water, food, humanitarian issues, energy and climate security. The Egyptian and Yemeni sides share similar visions about the importance of enhancing the degree of preparation to tackle non-traditional turmoil. For example, “the humanitarian and food security file” was a top Yemeni priority during the strategic dialogue with Egypt. This is given the magnitude of the divergent impacts of the ongoing war between the Houthis and other Yemeni parties.

The contexts of the Egyptian-Yemeni strategic dialogue reflect to what extent Cairo is aware of Yemen’s prime geopolitical importance, and the concerns about the impact of the increased political and ground developments on the region’s security. For example, there are concerns related to the growing threats of the Houthi militia against the waterways and thereby undermining the economy and logistic activities of the Suez Canal and also global trade, besides affecting the oil supplies in the Red Sea. Thus, the dialogue included some aspects that reflect the Egyptian thinking about the Yemeni matter such as below:

- Enhancing the National State: Cairo often stresses on its vision for bridging the existing rifts and supporting the sovereignty of the central nation state. This has been reflected in the strategic dialogue. It stresses on Egyptian support for all efforts aiming to arrive at a comprehensive political solution to the Yemeni crisis in a way that fulfills the aspirations of the Yemeni people and ends their humanitarian suffering, based on the references of the Yemeni national dialogue, the Gulf initiative and the latest Yemeni consultations in Riyadh. This is in addition to relevant UNSC resolutions, especially Resolution No. 2216*. The agenda of the bilateral talks serves to highlight the entanglement between Yemen’s security and stability and its direct impact on the Egyptian national security and the entire Arab region. 

- Openness to all National Parties: Egypt’s move to revive the dialogue with Yemen comes in light of the leadership’s adoption of the “dialogue with all” hypothesis and hearing all parties involved in the Yemeni matter in an attempt to create joint areas upon which the political settlement can be built. This comes amid Cairo’s endorsement of the establishment of the Presidential Leadership Council that includes representatives from different parties in Yemen’s North and South. Furthermore, Egypt welcomes the local/national Yemeni understandings such as the agreements between the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council (STC). There is also Egyptian support for the international and regional efforts for the paths to a political solution to the Yemeni crisis and ending the fighting. These include the Geneva Negotiations of 2015, the Stockholm Agreement of 2018, and the successive ceasefire attempts, the latest of which is the truce agreement of April 2022. This is in addition to supporting moves that aim to enhance the peace file in Yemen.

- Undermining the Activities of Non-State Actors: The growing activities of the violent non-state actors in the Southern part of the Red Sea are among the most prominent issues of common interest between Egypt and Yemen. Given the situation in Yemen, the Houthi militia and the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have a clear and direct impact, whether at the internal level or by actively adding to the security turmoil in the entire region. This is in addition to their direct threats against the economic capabilities of regional states.

After two days of talks, the Yemeni-Egyptian Strategic Dialogue led to some recommendations. The first stresses on the depth of the bilateral relationship between the two countries. The second one mentions the congruence of their political vision about the mechanisms of political settlements in the region’s troubled countries. The third is for enhancing the mechanisms of political, economic, and security cooperation in a way that serves the national goals of both countries and strengthens their strategy for structuring the regional security arrangements. This indicates a review of the “possible prospects” narratives of the Egyptian-Yemeni dialogue path as shown below:

- Political Prospects: The move to resume the ‘Strategic Dialogue’ has a “political symbolism” in its essence, in terms of boosting the depth of the bilateral partnership between the two countries, and the political step of the congruence of their visions about the peace file management in the region’s troubled countries.

- Security Prospects: The Yemeni-Egyptian dialogue paves the way for possible bilateral moves, pushed by some regional, international, and internal factors that require bigger cooperation between the two countries to confront the joint challenges and enhance regional security and stability, especially in the Red Sea.

- Economic/Developmental Prospects: This hypothesis is built on two points, the first of which is included in the closing statement, in terms of bilateral moves to reactivate the Higher Joint Committee, chaired by the prime ministers of the two countries. The committee includes joint economic and development files. The second point is represented in the post-political settlement moves, and the Egyptian openness to the engagement in the projects related to the Yemeni development and reconstruction efforts.