Sanaa hasn’t ever witnessed such a massive overflow of photos to mourn any figure, even senior Houthi leaders including Saleh Al-Sammad, the group’s Head ’Supreme Political Council‘ who was assassinated in Hodeidah in April 2018.

Ibrahim Ali* (South24)

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There is a deep and intertwined relationship between the Yemeni Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah as they have several commonalities as well as political and ideological goals. Additionally, these ties have largely impacted the political and regional scene in the Middle East.

It can be said that the strong and complicated relationship between the two Iran-backed groups has had a major impact on the region. The Hezbollah considers the Houthis as its extension while the latter look at the Lebanese group as a source of support and inspiration. Thus, there is no doubt that Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination on September 27 by an Israeli strike on a southern suburb of Beirut will have big repercussions on the Houthis in Yemen. However, the nature of these ramifications will depend on some tangled factors. What is certain so far is that this incident will leave a deep impact on the political and military scene in Yemen and the region.

Nasrallah’s photos that have flooded the streets of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, since his death are conclusive evidence of his deep influence among the Houthis. In an unprecedented move, the group printed and distributed thousands of Nasrallah’s photos across the city. These photos carry obituary phrases and enumerate the “virtues” of the late leader. The Houthis have pledged to follow his footsteps and threatened to take revenge.

Sanaa hasn’t ever witnessed such a massive overflow of photos to mourn any departed figure. Even senior Houthi leaders including Saleh Al-Sammad, the group’s ’Supreme Political Council‘ who was assassinated in Hodeidah in April 2018, didn’t receive such a visual tribute. Furthermore, Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani, who had strong links with the Houthis, didn’t also receive similar lionization after his death in a US drone strike in January 2020.

Although the Houthis are usually keen on taking community sensitivities into consideration regarding the photos of foreign religious and political figures over sectarian concerns, the case of Hassan Nasrallah is completely different. This is because these photos have been displayed during a time of a war and existential struggle. This has created a Houthi belief that the Yemeni community will largely understand this move due to the nature and context of the battle as well as the threats against Yemen. Moreover, the Houthis have found themselves forced to increase the level of veneration to this level, regardless of its consequences.

Pivotal Role

Exclusive sources to ‘South24 Center’ revealed new information about the pivotal role of Hezbollah in supporting and guiding the Houthis. Under Iran’s direct instructions, Hezbollah supervises all aspects of Houthi activities, including military and security training, strategic planning, and managing media propaganda.

This central role reveals that the Houthis have turned from being a secondary tool in the regional conflict into a main element in the Iranian project as they are instructed and directly armed through Hezbollah. This confirms that experts who work on training the Houthis are mostly from Lebanon and not Iran as thought previously.

This role is clear in the media field as Hezbollah supervises managing the TV satellite channel ’Al-Masirah‘ and other media platforms. This gives Hezbollah full control over the Houthis’ media communication. Moreover, the Lebanese group directly intervenes in the Houthi’s political decision-making, including those related to negotiations. This explains a previous statement by Nasrallah that he couldn’t play a mediation role regarding the Houthis as Hezbollah is itself a party. 

The killing on September 26 of Hezbollah leader Mohammed Hussein Soror, known as Abu Saleh, who was supervising the training of Houthis on using drones and missiles, stirs questions about the Lebanese group’s ability to continue supporting ’Ansarallah‘ despite the Hezbollah suffering heavy losses. On one hand, the group has been hit by a painful string of assassinations of its senior elite leaders. On the other hand, it is facing big security and military challenges in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah still enjoys large capabilities and continues playing a pivotal role in the regional conflict despite the latest blows.

The ’Islamic Republic‘ of Iran likely deals with the Houthis in an indirect way through the Hezbollah due to the fact that it is a country that has concerns over being accused of intervening in the affairs of another country. Moreover, Iran has transformed Hezbollah into the role of supervising Tehran's Shiite proxies in the region.

It can be said that the Houthis remain a secondary tool for Iran, due to their geographical distance. Nonetheless, the need for the Houthis has clearly increased since its Red Sea operations which has tipped the balance in Iran’s favor in its naval war with Israel that has extended for decades. Additionally, the Houthis constitute a direct threat to Saudi Arabia which has the biggest Arab economy. This has made the Houthis an important pressure tool in the regional conflict between Tehran and Riyadh.

Will Nasrallah’s Assassination Impact the Houthis?

Despite the logical questions arising about Hezbollah’s ability to continue its role in supporting the Houthis amid its current conditions, any conclusions based on the impact of the ongoing circumstances on the group are apparently too early and inadequate. The factors that affect the complicated dynamics of the conflict in Yemen go beyond just a relationship with Hezbollah. 

Undoubtedly, the complications of the situation in Yemen and its multiple actors make it hard to draw a direct link between the fate of the Houthis and Hezbollah’s ability to continue its role. However, there is certainly a connect between both. While, the importance of this role can’t be ignored, there are other several factors that impact the course of events.

Although the death of Nasrallah impacts the Houthis at more than one level due to his previous links in supervising their activities, Iran may seek to enhance the Yemeni group’s role to serve as its alternative main representative in the region in light of the challenges around Hezbollah. This creates a kind of influence for Tehran.

Therefore, the benefits to the Houthis from the decline of Hezbollah probably outweigh the negative effects. This is despite the fact that the Houthis may not receive the same level of support delivered to Hezbollah due to the latter’s geographical proximity to Israel, as Tel Aviv constitutes the biggest threat to Tehran’s project in the region.

However, this remains tied to the nature of the outcome of the battle between Hezbollah and Israel in south Lebanon. This also depends on Iran’s calculations regarding increasing support to the Houthis or not. If the Houthis lose the role of Hezbollah in case of getting weakened by the war, they may gain Iran's keenness to provide them support as an alternative that can make an influence balance in the region. Tehran, which has lost a large part of its influence in Lebanon, may fix this with expanding its clout circle in Yemen. 

On the other hand, the relationship between Iran and its proxies in the region points to a strong link in their goals and strategies. Thus, any strike directed at Iran or one of its proxies will affect the other arms too. Consequently, the decline of Hezbollah may directly impact the Houthi ability to move freely, regardless of the level of damage that could impact them.

This means that the repeated Israeli strikes against Hezbollah, that have hit it with heavy losses within its ranks, have created a leadership vacuum and destabilized the decision-making mechanism inside the Iranian military network. And being part of this network, the Houthis will inevitably be impacted by these developments.

It isn’t unlikely that the killing of Hezbollah leaders will have a direct impact on the Houthis as both of them are part of an interconnected Iranian military network. The killings weaken the Hezbollah's ability to provide logistic and military support to the Houthis. Thus, this will reduce the Houthi military capabilities in a way that impacts the path of the conflict in Yemen, in the short, medium or long term.

Finally, the assassination of Hezbollah leaders is expected to affect the Houthis at several levels. Militarily, this decreases the support delivered to the Houthis. Politically, this weakens the influence of Iran in the region. At the media level, this reduces the propaganda that they used to receive.