“Yemen isn’t unified today. There are two governments and two central banks. The Houthis are the ones who reject the unity and real partnership. Independence is the only option for Southerners.”

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Webinar (South24 Center)

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During a webinar organized by ’South24 Center‘ last Monday (October 28), local and foreign experts discussed the challenges that hinder and the opportunities that enhance the path of Southerners in their efforts toward establishing an independent state in South Yemen.

The webinar, titled ’Reinstating Sovereign Statehood: Challenges & Opportunities facing South Yemen in its Independence Struggle‘, saw the participation of key speakers Amr Al-Bidh, Special Political Affairs Representative of the Southern Transitional Council (STC); Dr. Neil Partrick, noted Middle East analyst; Farida Ahmed, ‘South24 Center’ Executive Director; Dr. Abdul Galil Shaif, Chairman, Friends of South Yemen; and journalist Karen Dabrowski, via ’Zoom‘. The webinar was moderated by Ala Mohsen, University of Utah, Doctoral Researcher.

Problems and Complications

Dr. Neil Partrick believes that the STC is today leading the efforts to restore the South state and achieve independence from North Yemen. However, according to him, this comes along with challenges and complications at several levels, including political, security, military, and social aspects.

He said: “The STC isn’t the only player in the South. There are other influential parties affecting what happens in the South.” He indicated that the STC is facing major criticism for its performance, especially regarding its relationship with the UAE. He claimed that “the different national identities within the South also constitute a challenge to the STC’s independence project”.

He added that the STC’s presence within the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) and the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) may be considered by some as contradicting the independence project. He stressed that withdrawing from this relationship and seeking for independence with all means may be a solution according to some perspectives. However, the STC will be bound by what Partrick described as “the international decisions and the Yemeni legitimate government that represents the whole country”.

There is another challenge at the security level represented in the counterterrorism role carried out by the STC.

Extended Strife

For his part, Amr Al-Bidh provided a historical overview of how the national liberation and independence movement began in South Yemen. He said that the ‘Disengagement Declaration’ by former Southern President Ali Salem Al-Bidh in May 1994 was the beginning of efforts to restore the South state following the collapse of the Yemeni unity project that was announced in 1990.

He added: “The crisis in Yemen today is related to two main factors, the first of which is the failure of the unity project and occupying the South three decades ago. The second is the war launched by the Houthis in 2015. In terms of the first factor, the repercussions of the 1994 war have led to the emergence of the liberation and resistance movement in South Yemen.”

“This movement has taken different shapes and forms, including the Southern Movement (Hirak) in 2007, the Southern Resistance (after 2012), and the STC in 2017 whose main goal is to address the unity crisis and achieve independence of South Yemen as part of the comprehensive political process in Yemen,” he explained.

Al-Bidh believes that signing the Riyadh Agreement in 2019 by the STC and the Yemeni government was aimed at representing the South issue in the political process and providing services and security to the Southern people. He added: “The big political transformation happened after 2022 with the establishment of the PLC. It was agreed to address the unity crisis within a special framework in the peace process.”

Security and Military Threats

Farida Ahmed said that Southerners face many security and military threats, especially the attacks carried out by terrorist groups in Abyan, Shabwa, and other governorates. She added: “The First Military District in Wadi Hadramout is a clear hotbed of dangerous Northern presence near the oil fields. This constitutes a threat to the South and calls for efforts for reinstating sovereign statehood."

She believes that “the Yemeni government’s control over this area is in doubt. The identity of who controls it is unknown. This makes it a permanent main challenge.”

According to Farida Ahmed “The Houthis aren’t the only strategic military threat. Northern forces, including the Islah Party, constitute a possible threat, especially in terms of the forced unity.”

The Executive Director of ’South24 Center‘ pointed to the new threat against the Southern island of Socotra related to the maritime attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis in the Gulf of Aden, Strait of Bab Al-Mandab, and the Red Sea. This is in addition to intelligence reports pointing to the Houthis’ cooperation with the extremist Somali movement ’Al-Shabaab‘ that is geographically close to the archipelago. 

Social and Economic Aspects

Dr. Abdul Galil Shaif said that Yemen today is divided into two economies, the first of which is in Sanaa and the Houthi-controlled areas. The second is in the areas controlled by the Yemeni government, mainly in South Yemen.

Dr. Shaif believes that the economic status of the former South state was much better than what exists there now. This “reflects the failure of unity regarding this level”.

The economic expert pointed to a “neglected humanitarian crisis” in South Yemen today as a result of the collapse of the local currency and the soaring food prices. He warned that people “are heading toward an economic humanitarian disaster in the government-controlled areas. This will lead to big dynamic and political changes which may include the acceleration of the independence process and restoring the South state.”

“South Yemen’s resources and the population numbers in Hadramout and Shabwa create many strategic economic opportunities in South Yemen, in comparison to the North. These capabilities encourage us, as Southerners, to establish an independent state,” he added.

Shaif pointed out that the total gross domestic product (GDP) of South Yemen had once reached the level of $40 billion which has now plummeted to $18 billion.

The International Recognition

 

Karen Dabrowski believes that “for gaining international status it is important for the STC to reinstate the sovereign statehood, even if this may not be consistent with the global mood”. She pointed to “important developments including the speech of STC President Aidrous Al-Zubaidi in front of the UNSC last September and his talks with the United States and Britain”.

She added: “The STC still lacks full support from UNSC Permanent Members, including Russia which had a historical relationship with South Yemen and supported its state between 1967-1990. (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is preoccupied with Ukraine and therefore Yemen is a low priority for Moscow."

Dabrowski claimed that “Russia supports the Houthis with satellite photos to facilitate targeting vessels for revenge on the United States”.

She also stressed that “if the Southerners want to restore the state, the only way for them is to declare it unilaterally. However, the international community may abandon them, such as the case of the Kurds in Iraq. If there is no declaration of the South state now, when will it happen? Yemen will be forgotten amid a new decade of internal conflicts.”

Partnership with Northerners

Amr Al-Bidh discussed another challenge related to the share of the South and the North in the PLC. This has created problems for Southerners in terms of the decision-making and change process. This also contradicts the fact that the South today represents most areas that aren’t controlled by the Houthis. He added: “There is no easy way for performing the duties of the state and providing services amid these complications and divergent agendas within the government and the PLC.”

However, Al-Bidh added: “Joining the government and the attempt to make changes from within have given us an opportunity to understand things from inside. We are part of the government and a liberation movement simultaneously. This is a hybrid situation but it has been necessary.”

The Saudi Role

Neil Partrick doubted the Saudi role in the South, pointing to the territorial councils that were established by Riyadh recently, top of which is “the Hadramout National Council” (formed in June 2023). He wondered: “We don’t know what the term ‘national’ means in the HNC. It may promote the idea of separating Hadramout from the South for economic goals such as the Saudi oil pipeline that will help Riyadh avoid the Strait of Hormuz and link it to the Arabian Sea through Hadramout”.

However, Partrick believes that concerns and reservations dominate Southerners in areas such as Hadramout and Al-Mahrah for reasons related to the central state led by the Socialist regime during the former South state and its inherited injustices.

In response, Amr Al-Bidh said that the STC adopts the project of a federal state and not a central one to address any concerns or doubts in addition to avoiding past mistakes. According to him “this includes sovereign and autonomous territories and governorates, including Hadramout of course”.

The Unity of Military Forces

Militarily, Farida Ahmed believes that the Southern forces are more organized than others in Yemen but they need restructuring and regulations. However, they “face a mix of military and security challenges that would confuse any organized force. Moreover, the funding of these forces should be taken into consideration to achieve full efficiency”. She referred to the forces funded by Saudi Arabia and the UAE in South Yemen and called for finding self-financing options that would enhance the independence of those institutions.

Farida Ahmed proposed the establishment of a unified leadership for the military and security forces in the South under the name of the ‘General Authority of the Southern National Defense’ or the ‘Supreme Council of the Southern Armed Forces’. She stressed the need to make use of being part of the government and the PLC to send Southern military and security cadres abroad to gain more experience.

Internal Consensus

To overcome some of the challenges, Karen Dabrowski stressed “the need for reaching an internal consensus about restoring the South state regardless of the different points in any other level”. She explained: “This should happen as the situation is moving to the unknown and South Yemen is heading towards nowhere. This makes radical steps such as unilateral independence a realistic option today.”

Dr. Shaif pointed out that there is already a strong internal consensus in the South regarding independence. He explained: “Most Southerners support independence. This is well known. The STC joined the government and the PLC to work together with local, regional, and international partners for a peaceful solution of the crisis.”

He concluded: “Yemen isn’t unified today. There are two governments and two central banks. The Houthis are the ones who reject the unity and real partnership. Independence is the only option for Southerners.”