Will Sea Water Swallow the Southern City of Aden?

There are no accurate official statistics about the damage caused by floods and rains in Aden on April 21, 2020, although the numbers by international and U.N organizations indicate that approximately 20 people were died, including children and women, and 85 were injured between moderate and minor conditions in addition to 371 affected areas in 14 Yemeni governorates.

According to the U.N. estimations, the number of people affected by the floods reached 150,000, including 22,000 in Aden, most of whom were internally displaced, in addition to 11 shelter camps for the homeless. More than 1,000 families were displaced from 7 sites for the displaced inside the city, while 638 families were affected in Abyan Governorate, adjacent to Aden, only in Khanfar and Zinjibar districts. Also 679 displaced families were affected in the neighboring Lahij governorate.

Last year's floods caused the collapse and destruction of dozens of homes and roads, causing widespread damage to infrastructure, homes and shelters in Aden and neighboring governorates, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Yemen.

Recently, recent scientific studies revealed that Aden’s distinguished geographical location threatens it with major disasters in case of rising sea levels, and the areas that can be most affected are the areas near the beaches, flat areas with the lowest level of height, the current tidal areas, the marshes and salinas areas, and lowlands.

The author of the study, Professor Nada Al-Sayed Hassan, Professor of Environment and Environmental Pollution at the Faculty of science, University of Aden, confirmed that the rise in sea level will directly affect the infrastructure of cities, bridges, and road networks, and often have a significant impact on the population, especially the poor segments who live near coasts , such as fishermen, and remote villages in some of the low-lying islands, noting that the potential impact of climate change on the infrastructure of the coastal city of Aden and its associated services necessitates the concerned authorities to develop a national contingency plan to face potential such disasters.

Through a study conducted on the city of Aden using the scientific methods used by the

Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the scenarios showed the results shown in the table below.

"The researcher Woodworth, and others in (2009) confirmed the same fact that the sea level in Aden is rising at the same rates, and similar to those in other places in the world, all these studies confirm that the sea level is rising in Aden, and will continue in the future. The global forecast is 5.9 mm/year at the highest tide” according to the same study presented by Al-Sayed entitled “Aden is threatened by Sea Level Rise” among a scientific symposium organized by the University of Aden for the period 4-6 November 2019 on the impact of climate change and its reflection on Yemen and regarding risks caused by sea level rise on the city of Aden, Al-Sayed indicated that the potential impact of climate change on the infrastructure of the coastal city of Aden and its associated services, which include: seaports, Aden International Airport, water and sewage, power stations, wetlands, erosion and water leakage and saline, as climate change will lead to more strong storms, including heavy and sudden rainfall, high wind speed, temperature fluctuations, and higher storm rates.

Al-Sayed said that power plants in coastal areas are also exposed to the dangers of inundation, as they are located on the sea. Also the biodiversity threaten and greatly affect wetlands, as they are of great environmental importance in the city and the region, stressing that the salt marshes are "flat land in which Salt deposits and calcium carbonate brought by the wind or a water stream” represent great importance in the coastal areas, as the salt in Aden is an important economic resource in providing salt, and any rise in sea level may threaten the continuation of the salt lake in production or may increase the economic cost of production.

Professor Al-Sayed confirmed that the concerned authorities and decision-making centers in Aden can benefit from these scientific research and studies with security and future visions on climate change, and work on disaster reduction in case of sea level rise. She noted that it is possible to face the challenges and risks that Aden faces as a result of the rising sea level through, preparing a rapid emergency plan "environment, health, water", providing a framework for implementing a general plan to confront environmental disasters as a basic plan for a set of sub plans, confirming coordination and cooperation with the relevant authorities and ministries at the central government and operational levels.

In early November 2019, during a scientific symposium on “The Impact of Climate Change and its repercussions on Yemen”, organized by the University of Aden, a group of researchers (Mohammed Al-Safani, Adel Al-Habbabi, Muhammad Mahdi, and Ahmed Hajar) led by Prof. Hisham Naji, Head of the Department of Science and Environment at Sana’a University, presented a scientific study on “The Impact of Sea Level Rise and Climate Change on the Coastal Region of Aden Governorate,” through which two future scenarios for sea level rise in the coastal region were adopted, one of which is a level rise of 33 cm and the other by 60 cm, which is what the city of Aden actually witnessed after 7 months of these forecasts are due to the April 2020 floods.

In this regard, Dr. Hisham Naji, Professor of Coastal Environment and Head of the Environmental Sciences Department at Sana'a University, said that several different regions of the coasts of Aden Governorate were selected, based on their different characteristics and sensitivity to sea level rise. During the study, stakeholders were involved and experienced people from the region were consulted, as well as looking at the vulnerability of these areas to being affected and adapting to sea level rise through field visits and analysis of tidal data for the city of Aden during the previous 90 years, in addition to the use of some modeling and GIS programs , in order to give an idea about the sensitivity of the different coastal areas in Aden to sea level rise, through which two possible global scenarios for sea level rise were adopted, as follows: The first is the possibility of sea level rise in Aden by 33 mm annually and the other 60 mm annually.

The study was published in the well-known scientific Journal of the Faculty of Science, Sana’a University, No. 27 for the year 2015, journal. It concluded, according to Professor Hisham Naji, that there are several dangers on the coasts of Aden Governorate, including the loss of large areas of sandy coasts, which will lead to damage to coastal communities and the tourism sector, as well as about 5 to 6 percent of the lowlands of Aden Governorate are subject to flooding, which will lead to heavy materialistic losses.

It is also expected that the salty sea water would leak into the nearby wells, as well as a 50% increase in the possibility of residential areas being exposed to tidal waves associated with hurricanes.

Naji said that the adaptive solutions to the rise in sea level are to prevent the creation of new facilities near the coastline, and to move away from it in construction by leaving sufficient spaces for recreation or establishing gardens and parks in these areas. It also banned construction in low-lying areas, as well as the construction of a protection wall on the coast, such as the one in front of the city of Mukalla, or the construction of a coastal road 4 meters high. Plus a number of other recommendations.

“The floods that occurred in Aden last year were one of the climate changes that have the most impact on the city,” said community activist and researcher Heba Fahim Haider when she participated in the Climate Reality 24 h summit - Washington in mid-2020.

She continued:” Recently, the coastal city, Aden, which is known as one of the hottest regions in the world, suffers from sudden tornados, torrents and rainy depressions during the hottest days of the year, especially in the summer.

“In a city that suffers from great economic and political problems like Aden, it is so difficult to find ways to measure change. It is noticeable that there is a significant increase in the varied climatic changes, from very extreme heat and high levels of humidity to heavy rains and tornadoes that the city has not experienced before, and how likely all this might be linked to the remnants of war that started at March 2015, the war that still affecting the society until this moment, with the unstable political situation” said Heba Fahim.

Fahim, who is interested in climate change issues, added: "The government must urgently focus more on environmental issues and climate change, and a serious plan must be prepared and implemented by which civil society organizations work with governmental agencies to work more on statistics, spread awareness and reduce the causes of environmental pollution that threaten the Yemeni society with a real environmental and humanitarian catastrophe. She stressed on the necessity of forming an environmental group or entity in order to achieve this goal”.

According to Eng. Ibrahim Moneim, Director of the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Department in Office of the Public Authority for Environmental Protection, the city of Aden includes the districts of Aden Peninsula, which are “ Crater, Al-Mualla, and Al-Tawahi", are affected by torrential coming from the mountains, as a result of climatic changes, and they need maintenance and strengthening the control and drainage system, including the Tawila tanks and some dams in hills , also there is a need for expanding the construction of more dams in critical areas, pointing out that the Tawila tanks are one of the greatest available solutions, in addition to working on projects providing protection barriers.

A study published in Nature Communications Journal on June 29th states that “by the year 2100, the number of people at risk of sea-level rise, could increase to 410 million, most of whom will be in areas of which 62% fall within the tropical lines”.

The study, conducted by researchers at the Dutch “Deltares” institute, explains that “climate change has caused sea levels to rise, and the frequency and intensity of storms to increase, both of which increase the risk of flooding in coastal areas, especially since most of the threatened areas are located in ranges where the potentials may not be available for up-to-date data to predict flood risks, and where it is difficult to provide accurate data for land-level rise above sea level.

While a study published by the journal Scientific Reports on July 30th, 2020, projected an increase in coastal flooding events by 48%, which could threaten assets worth 20% of global GDP by 2100, in light of rising greenhouse gas emissions, sea level rise, and the lack of infrastructure to repel floods, according to Al-Alam.

 

According to the study prepared by a multidisciplinary research team from Australian, Dutch and German universities, “the number of the world’s population at risk of coastal flooding could reach 287 million by 2100, which is equivalent to 4.1% of the world’s population. Losses in assets threatened by flooding are also estimated at 14.2 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to 20% of global GDP.

A researcher in the Department of Infrastructure Engineering at the Australian University of Melbourne, and lead researcher in the study, "Ebro Kerzki", in his statements to "Al-Alam" expect that there will be a significant increase in the effects of extreme marine phenomena on the coasts of the southern Mediterranean, which includes the low coastal areas in the Nile Delta. In Egypt, as well as the coasts of the Arabian Gulf.

Kirzki stressed the need to conduct detailed local studies on each of the threatened areas, to accurately estimate the extent of the expected loss in the area, and to determine the best means to confront it, given that coastal areas are highly vulnerable to rising sea levels and climate change. In order to prevent the negative effects of climate change and sea level rise, it is necessary to develop national strategies, depending on coastal risk levels and the needs of coastal communities.

Earlier, more than 106 of climate change experts warned that the sea level could rise to a meter by 2100 and fivefold by 2300, if the countries of the world did not commit to reduce greenhouse gas levels in the near future, according to what was agreed upon. The researchers who work in several universities and research institutes around the world, in a study published on May 8 in the journal "Nature" for climate sciences under the supervision of Nanyang University in Singapore - said that previous studies in this field were not strong, and did not reflect the great amount of the danger facing many countries about rising sea levels, "according to Al Jazeera Net website.

The World Bank report issued on December 5, 2012, also revealed that disasters caused by climate change cost the Arab region direct losses of 12 billion dollars, and affected the lives of fifty million Arabs during the past thirty years, indicating that the indirect losses of disasters exceed the mentioned amount many times. The report warned about the sinking of some coastal Arab cities due to rising sea levels, such as Alexandria, Aden and Jeddah.

Dr. Fawaz Bahamish, Assistant Professor of Applied Geomorphology, Department of Geography, College of Education - Aden, Deputy Director of the Center for Environmental Sciences Studies, University of Aden, says: "According to scientists' estimations, the city of Aden occupies the sixth place in the world among the cities threatened by drowning in sea water, and the second in the Arab world, after the Egyptian city of Alexandria. "He added: "Aden witnessed many torrential rains and floods in several stages, between 1967, 1982, and 1993, but increased annually after the war of March 2015, specifically from 2017-2021. The sea level is increasing due to the melting of the ice covering the Greenland peninsula and the global warming that the world is witnessing, this rise leads to the inundation of some areas.”

As for the expected effects of this phenomenon on Aden, they are “floods, possibilities of rise of sea levels, erosion threats to beaches, sea water interference, environmental influences. The areas that are threatened by drowning and inundation due to climatic changes that may occur with sea level rise are: “the coast of Abyan Khor Maksar, and the region Surrounding Khor Bir Ahmad, Al-Heswa and Al-Farsi," says Bahmesh.

Regarding the procedures for dealing with this phenomenon, Bahmeish points out that this is represented by: First, finding an area free of obstacles and installations so that this area is 300 to 500 meters above sea level. Secondly, the construction of structural barriers that act as fenders to protect coastal areas from the wave’s attacks. Thirdly, the beaches should be replaced with sand due to the erosion that they have lost. Fourth, reconsidering construction in coastal areas according to land uses, by finding a city planning council, in order to carry out the city planning process properly. Fifthly, the establishment of an early attention center to reduce disasters, including climate changes that have developed in the world, including Aden.

"The  current location of Aden and the scenarios and studies established reveal that it is exposed to disasters and environmental risks. the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change dealt with 25 coastal cities in the world threatened by the dangers of sea level rise, and Aden ranked sixth, this makes everyone facing a great responsibility for what this problem might cause of serious reflections in the economic, social and environmental aspects,” according to previous statements by the Director of the Environmental and Marine Sciences Research Center, Dr. Jamal Bawazir.

 

Kamal Salah Al-Dainy, a young man in his thirties, said: “We live in a state of terror with every falling rain shower. Last year I lost my dearest person, my mother, may God have mercy on her soul, due to the torrential rains that hit our city, we could have all drowned. Thank God for his care. That was in Al-Rasafi neighborhood in Al-Qalou’a District. Although It has been a year or more since that, the affected people have not been compensated for the inflicted damages until now.

Aldaiany continued, „As a result of the floods flowing inside our house the walls of the house around us collapsed, burying half of my mother’s lower body with it”. He burst in tears and stopped talking for a while, before crying again remembering that tragedy. 

Al-Dainy hopes that the tragedy that happened to his family as a result of last year’s torrents and floods will not be repeated with any family in Aden. calling on authorities to do their responsibility towards their citizens, and to take the necessary plans to protect the city and its residents from any damage, in light of climatic changes and the dangers facing Aden, as he said.

More than 267 million people around the world are exposed to significant risks as a result of living near cities located within areas that are less than two meters above sea level, which makes these areas more vulnerable to the risk of sea level rise, and then drowning or erosion of the coastline.

Yemen, the country that is wracked by war for the seventh year in a row, is experiencing the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. Its capital, Aden, is now ranked the second in the Arab world and sixth globally in the list of the 10 most coastal cities in the world at risk of drowning.