Between North Sinai and South Yemen: “Terrorism” is Making A Comeback

On May 7th 2022, ISIS killed 10 Egyptian soldiers and injured 5 others in a shootout west of Sinai which targeted a water pumping station [7]. It was an unexpected operation after approximately 5 years since the last campaign carried out by the army in 2018. This came at a time when Sinai restored its activities and agility after years of staying under the state of emergency amid remarkable decline of extremists' operations. The attacks basically focused on military and security forces in addition to other attacks that carried sectarian features. As a reaction towards the latest operation, the Egyptian Army made a quick and a qualitative response as it declared the killing of 23 "takfiri elements" in the same governorate. This was followed by several scattered operations in Sinai [8]. This constitutes a new security challenge for the army after a state of strategic inactivity by which these groups try to rearrange and organize their ranks, especially after losing important leadership figures. This may denote that there are new elements that are more professional and equipped with qualitative weapons and high-level technology compared with the former consumed and embattled groups. This is likely enhanced by the continuous smuggling of weapons and fighters to Sinai and supporting them with money and weapons to strengthen their presence and confuse the political scene in Egypt, especially after President el-Sisi declaration in late April about launching the “National Dialogue” with all political forces without exception or discrimination [9]. 

On the other hand, it is clear that the extremist groups select a suitable timing to arouse chaos and violence. The political changes in the Yemeni presidency structure on April 7th irritated “terrorist” groups which launched several terrorist attacks in more than one site. This began with the escape of roughly 10 AQAP suspects from a prison in Wadi Hadramout under the protection of the “1st Military District” affiliated with the Islah Party. Moreover, AQAP elements attacked a Security Belt’s headquarter in Al-Dhalea which led to the killing of two security commanders and 7 terrorist attacking elements. The governorates of Abyan and Shabwa witnessed ongoing operations against Southern elements from Shabwa Defense Forces and the Giants. “South24” published a paper about this matter [10] which demonstrated the connotations and the reasons behind the recent increase of terrorist activities in the Yemeni Southern governorates. The most prominent of which is to pressure the new Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) and to confuse it in its first days, especially after sacking Yemeni Vice President “Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar” who is accused of forging links with these groups over decades [11]. Parallelly, the influence of the Islamic Islah party which controls the presidential decision since the beginning of the Yemeni Civil War in 2014 was reduced.

In Egypt,  Major General Al-Alfi said: “The timing of the latest operations came as a result of international transformations, especially the Russian-Ukrainian War and its ramifications on the whole region as well as the attempts by  some parties which participate in the war to pressure some Arab states to move their capabilities  and wealth to certain directions. Furthermore, this includes President Al-Sissi’s declaration regarding ending the state of emergency in the country and his call to launch a national dialogue between all political forces in Egypt and presenting proposals and solutions to treat all important files, foremost of which is probably the counterterrorism file. These events may contribute in awakening these groups to launch new terrorist attacks”.

It is important to say that using the hard power (the military) is not enough alone to run some complicated crises such as the terrorism file as sometimes its long-term results are not guaranteed. Therefore, some countries adopt the “soft power” approach along with the hard one due to its ability to influence and convince. It seems that Cairo began to adopt this approach within its policies and ideas to present an attractive and less costly pattern which may be more guarantee of its influence. Egyptian media outlets talk about the impact of drama and cinema as a soft power. Some works of art have been able to formulate the awareness in Egypt towards the danger of the violent and terrorist groups and their negative role in one of the stormy phases experienced by the country. For example, the three- season TV series “Al-Ikhtiyar” (The Choice) contributed in forming the social awareness in Egypt regarding the terrorism phenomenon. It depends on a narrative built upon facts, real photos and records. This constituted accumulated knowledge about the scale of dangerous acts carried out by such groups and the efforts done by the state to counter them.  The latest “terrorist” operation in Sinai may be a response on that according to an Egyptian thinker [12].

It is clear that such a connection between Iran and the extremist groups is not different from their coordination and support inside the Egyptian territories. During raids implemented by the Egyptian Army, Iranian-made weapons were detected in more than one place including Alexandria, Al-Beheira and North Sinai. The links between Tehran and the Muslim Brotherhood were proved through the continuous supplies of weapons and enabling  these groups to destabilize the regional security [20]. Such a support may be tied with Hamas which controls Gaza and receives weapons and financial support from Iran [21]. The distance between Gaza and North Sinai is about 12 km. Some extremist factions have been able to smuggle weapons and extremist elements through concrete tunnels between Sinai and Gaza for years. The latest of this smuggling operation was carried out days ago when Mohammed Fayad, an ISIS commander in Palestine, whose nickname was Abu Yahya Al-Ghazawi infiltrated but the Egyptian Army destroyed him by a special operation in North Sinai’s “Al-Lifitat” [22].

Mounir Adib, Egyptian researcher in the Islamic movement and the international terrorism affairs [23] believes that Iran has connections with most violent incidents that hit the Arab region whether in the northern part of Sinai or what happened in Syria, Libya and Yemen. He told “South24” that “Iran's Revolutionary Guards previously established relationships with the Muslim Brotherhood when the latter was holding power in 2012. Tehran still maintains these relationships whether with the Muslim Brotherhood or other violent and extremist organizations including the AQAP and ISIS in Egypt and other countries”.

Regarding the role played by these groups in North Sinai and their connection with the MB even after the 30th June Revaluation in 2013 which deposed President Morsi, they carried out some terrorist operations during that period. The MB’s involvement in these attacks was proved through a video statement by the MB leader “Mohammed Al-Beltaji” who said: “What happens in Sinai will stop immediately if Morsi returns to perform the duties of his position”. This is a clear admission by him that the MB leads the terrorist operations in Sinai [24]. Adib also agreed with such a view. 

The Egyptian researcher believes that “those who are affiliated with the MB in Yemen were and still are backers of the Houthi coup against the Yemeni state even if they show otherwise as they are the ones who helped the Houthis to reach power by military power”. 

According to Adib, this cooperation has been very clear through supporting the AQAP, especially that the AQAP commanders were helped to escape from prisons controlled by the Houthis. Additionally, the latter receive support from the MB and the AQAP. “These contexts demonstrate how a pragmatic approach the violent religious groups adopt in their attempt to regain their influence through building interest networks with more than one party even at the expense of their principles and ideologies”. 

The violent religious groups, even those which adopt dodgy political discourse such as the MB, Hezbollah and the Houthis, began to lose their presence within their societies given their catastrophic experiences. Their ideologies are strategically related to achieving the goals of international parties and organizations rather than achieving national goals. Their opportunities in entering the peace field became less acceptable and more suspicious according to events and experiences.

Recently, according to American media outlets, Biden administration intends to remove 5 extremist groups from the list of foreign terrorist organizations including the “Islamic Group” (Al-Jama'a al-Islamiya) [25]. The latter is responsible for assassinating former Egyptian President Anwar Al-Sadat. It also carried out a wave of attacks against security forces and tourists in Egypt during the 1980s and the 1990s. This American decision has stirred much controversy in Egypt. Biden is accused of reactivating these entities and giving them legitimacy while others consider this move as a violation against Egyptian sovereignty [26]. Prior to that, Washington studied removing Iran’s Revolutionary Guards from the terrorist list for making progress in the Iranian nuclear program negotiations. However, Biden decided days ago not to omit them from such a list according to Israeli PM, Bennett, in what is believed to be a strong blow to the opportunities to revive the Nuclear Deal [27].

Accordingly, in light of the common links between these extremist groups in Yemen and Egypt, there are some relevant recommendations as shown below:

- The Yemeni newly-formed PLC should address the “terrorism” crisis according to the root of its connection, and  to exclude any roles of the political parties and military commanders involved in enabling the Houthis to seize control on the Northern governorates or those which have direct or indirect impact in the spread of champs and assassinations in South Yemen.

- The PLC can benefit from the Egyptian experience in using the soft power through drama to combat the ideology of extremism and terrorism as this has been proven to increase the social awareness towards this phenomenon. 

- As for Egypt, the development of the security and intelligence agencies can play a big role in tightening the noose on the terrorist elements and also to reduce the border tracks and the external finance networks. 

- The “National Dialogue” launched recently by President el-Sisi can open larger horizons for political reforms and addressing the most sensitive files. It can gradually reduce the most violent and radical ideas.