Aden (South24)

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A new round of negotiations between the Internationally Recognized Government of Yemen and the Houthis will take place tomorrow (June 30) in the Omani capital, Muscat, Saudi newspaper "Okaz", which is close to the royal court, reported.

The newspaper indicated in a report published on Thursday that “Muscat will embrace important humanitarian and economic negotiations between the two sides of the conflict (the Houthis and the legitimate government) after successful Saudi-Omani mediation.”

The newspaper attributed the recent opening of the Al-Hawban road in the city of Taiz, and other roads in Marib in North Yemen, to what it described as "the tireless Saudi-Omani diplomacy”. It said that these steps "did not come out of nowhere."

However, Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) has limited the agenda of Sunday’s negotiations to the issues related to the exchange of prisoners of war, detainees and abductees and those forcibly disappeared by the Houthis. The talks are to be held under the auspices of the United Nations (UN) and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

The official news agency Saba reported from the PLC's meeting on Friday that the council discussed the current arrangements for holding these negotiations. The statement did not indicate a specific date for the talks, but it is likely to be tomorrow, Sunday.

“The PLC renewed its keenness to support efforts to end the suffering of detainees, abductees, and disappeared persons and reunite them with their families in accordance with the all-for-all rule, led by Mohammed Qahtan, who is included in the UN Security Council resolution," Saba added.

Qahtan is a senior official in the Yemeni Islah Party. He was kidnapped by the Houthis in 2015 after they took control of Sanaa.

In April 2023, the former Yemeni Minister of Defense, Major General Mahmoud Al-Subaihi, and Nasser Mansour Hadi, brother of former Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, were released in an agreement between the two parties to exchange approximately 900 prisoners.

Related: Implementing the Prisoner Exchange Agreement on Friday, a Yemeni Official 

The prisoner exchange process at that time, sponsored by the Red Cross, included flights between Aden, Marib, Abha, Saudi Arabia, and Sanaa, over a period of three days.

Today, the Houthi-run Saba Agency released pictures of the negotiating team regarding the prisoners exchange deal, which it said had left for the Sultanate of Oman for a new round of negotiations under the UN's auspices.

Saba said that during yesterday's meeting, the PLC "discussed developments related to the opening of roads in Taiz, Marib, and other governorates, and the necessary guarantee measures to end the Houthi militia's siege of cities."

The meeting discussed the issue of UN employees and international organizations who were recently kidnapped by the Houthis in Sanaa. The matter of the four Yemenia Airways planes that were seized by the Houthis at Sanaa Airport was also discussed.

Related: Houthis seize 4 Yemenia Airways' planes in Sanaa 

Yesterday, Yemeni Defense Minister Lieutenant General Mohsen Al-Daari attacked the Houthis and accused them of scouting for a better military position through their claims of road opening.

The Houthi military campaign against international shipping since November 2023 has led to paralysis of the political course of the Yemeni crisis, and to the freezing of the UN roadmap announced by UN envoy Hans Grundberg in December.

Related: UN announces roadmap to end Yemen conflict 

The Houthis have attempted to separate the naval military escalation from the internal crisis in Yemen and link it to a broader regional context, which is the war on Gaza. However, this pretext has been rejected by the Southern Transitional Council, the Southern component in the PLC.

Tomorrow’s negotiations also come in the backdrop of a highly charged atmosphere between the two sides, as a result of a series of economic measures announced by the legitimate Yemeni government. These include directives by the Central Bank in Aden to commercial banks to move their headquarters from Sanaa to Aden, directing Yemenia Airways to transfer their revenues to Aden from Sanaa, rejecting the Houthis’ 100-riyal coin launch as unlawful, and directing mobile companies to shift their headquarters to Aden from Sanaa.

The Houthis' escalation of military activities does not reflect positive messages on which hopes can be built regarding the upcoming negotiations, most notably their announcement on June 26 of launching a hypersonic missile on an Israeli ship and the operation of drone boats to target ships.

Related: Houthis claim possession of hypersonic missile 

Extended negotiations or merely prisoner negotiations?

According to Osama Alshermy, Undersecretary of the Yemeni Ministry of Information: “The political negotiations scheduled to be held in Muscat, the capital of Oman, are an old effort undertaken by Saudi Arabia and the Sultanate of Oman to bring the views between the legitimate government and the Houthis closer.”

Speaking to ‘South24 Center’, Alshermy added: “We believe that this effort has suffered severe setbacks due to the attacks launched by the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.”

Regarding what was reported in Okaz newspaper, Alshermy said: “I think it is a general article in which the writer speaks in a vague manner without delving into the Yemeni issue, and in which he repeats general slogans to end the war and achieve peace in Yemen without a real understanding of reality and the agenda of the Houthi militia and the Iranian background support for it".

"We do not disagree that if the war is internal to Yemen, then it is a Yemeni issue, but when it is the subject of regional and international agendas, then we have no choice but to ignore such statements and consider them written for external use," he added.

Economic Aspects

Mustafa Nasr, Director of the Studies and Economic Media Center, believes that "presenting the economic aspects in the negotiations has been a persistent demand of the Houthis, who recently escalated the matter by unilaterally issuing a new 100-riyal currency."

“The Internationally Recognized legitimate authority realizes that the Houthis want to reduce the economic pressure on them, resulting from the recent decisions of the Central Bank in Aden and the Ministry of Transport, while not backing down from their escalatory measures represented by issuing new currencies, and causing a halt in oil and gas exports (from the ports of the legitimate government) since November 2022," he said in his comments to ‘South24 Center’.

"The Yemeni government realizes that while the Houthis are using the negotiations to maneuver to obtain gains, they (Houthis) will not make any concessions. These are the real and new concerns, given all the previous agreements," he said.

Undeclared Understandings

Sanaa-based political analyst Rashed Al-Haddad told ‘South24 Center’ about an “undeclared understanding” that he said occurred between a Houthi delegation that recently participated in the Hajj rituals in Mecca, and the Saudis.

He said that "what was stated in an editorial in the Saudi Okaz newspaper, known for its closeness to the royal court, confirms that the Muscat negotiations came as a result of these understandings." He added: “The most important indication of this is the participation of the Sanaa delegation, headed by the Chairman of the Military Committee, Major General Yahya Al-Razami, in Muscat's negotiations.” (Al-Razami was leading the Houthi delegation to Mecca for the Hajj rituals)

Al-Haddad also referred to “pressure” that he said Saudi Arabia had exerted on the “Aden government” to participate in the Muscat negotiations. He added: "It is likely that (Yemeni Prime Minister) Ahmed Bin Mubarak's government’s refusal to negotiate on the economic aspect is related to the ongoing (maritime) tension in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This also comes within the framework of the American tendency to put pressure on Sanaa in order to suspend (the latter’s) operations against Israeli shipping."

He believes that "all signs so far indicate that the Muscat round of negotiations will not achieve positive results, and the reason for this is that the crisis of confidence between the Yemeni parties participating in it is still substantial."

"Until now, the government delegation participating from Aden is focusing on the prisoners' issue, even as the economic escalation continues, which confirms the continued pressure without any response regarding the economic negotiations," he added.

Since the war outbreak in Gaza, Saudi Arabia has found itself caught between the old and new crisis in Yemen, which it is trying to wriggle out of at any cost, as well as a new regional crisis that has ravaged the region. The Kingdom did not participate in the US-led military operations (Prosperity Guardian) to stop piracy and Houthi hostilities against civilian and commercial ships crossing the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Rather, it supported the Houthi narrative, which sought to place its attacks in the context of responding to the Israeli war on Gaza.

While Riyadh is trying to present itself as a mediator between the Yemenis alongside the Sultanate of Oman, the Houthis stress that Saudi Arabia is a main party in the crisis and not a mediator. This is a more accurate description if one considers the direct bilateral talks between the Kingdom and the Yemeni community facilitated by Oman more than two years ago.

Related: In Yemen’s Crisis: Is Saudi Arabia a Mediator or a Party? 

Whatever the topics and files of the new negotiations, it is apparent that achieving any progress in the political track of the Yemeni crisis depends largely on stopping the Houthis’ military escalation at sea, at least from the point of view of major international actors such as the United States, and major local actors such as the Southern Transitional Council.

Moreover, speaking of the economic escalation that has complicated matters for the diplomatic efforts, acknowledging the fact that it was not the result of the moment or a result of Aden’s measures, but rather a result of the Houthi drones that came towards the oil ports in South Yemen in 2022, could contribute to alleviating the tension and preparing the atmosphere towards politics and diplomacy.