“The most prominent development in the Shiite arena is the belief that there is an Iranian deal with the United States that has led to a temporary abandonment of Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies to consolidate the so-called new order in the region. This means that the Hezbollah scenario will be repeated in Yemen. The Houthi military depth will be hit, making them a mere political movement.”

Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24) 

The Lebanese arena is witnessing unprecedented developments, particularly the escalation of the Israeli military operations in the south, the expansion of airstrikes, and the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli air strike on September 27, which is one of the biggest blows delivered to the Iran-backed group. This was followed by the Israeli ground invasion in early October. The world’s attention has shifted to Lebanon which has become a theater for violent confrontations between the Israeli army and Hezbollah amid the growing international concerns about possible expansion of the conflict circle to include the whole region.

The assassination of Nasrallah is considered a pivotal incident in the conflict, and increases the ambiguity about the future of Hezbollah and the impact that these blows will have on the power balance in Lebanon and the region.

Moreover, these developments in Lebanon coincided with a barrage of Iranian missile attacks against Israel on October 1, in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 in the heart of Tehran. The attack has stirred concerns about a possible Israeli response that may target Iranian nuclear and vital facilities, according to Hebrew newspapers. This threatens the occurrence of the worst comprehensive war scenario that has been looming over the region for about one year.

Moreover, the Houthi militia have also escalated their attacks against Israel. They announced the launching of three drone and missile attacks between September 26-October 3, two of which targeted Tel Aviv. Despite the Houthi claims about damages caused by the attacks, the Israeli army said it had thwarted the hostile objects in the air.

On September 29, Israel launched a new wave of airstrikes against the ports of Hodeidah which is under Houthi control. On October 4, the US Central Command struck Houthi targets in Sanaa, Hodeidah, and other governorates after a British ship was hit by the Iran-backed group in the Red Sea on October 1.

The Israeli Escalation in Lebanon

On September 28, the Israeli army announced it had eliminated Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on the Hezbollah's central command headquarters, south of Beirut. Hezbollah later confirmed the death of its Secretary General. It is the biggest blow suffered by the group in the two weeks of Israeli attacks that targeted its infrastructure, including detonating thousands of communication devices (pagers) which are a main communication and organization tool for Hezbollah.

On October 2, Reuters quoted sources as saying that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had warned Hassan Nasrallah, a few days before his assassination, to flee Lebanon in anticipation of any possible developments in the region. Despite this warning, Nasrallah was killed in the Israeli air raid. Others to be killed in the raid included senior Hezbollah official Ali Karaki and other commanders.

Prior to that on September 23, tens of Israeli raids on several areas in Lebanon killed 492 persons, including 35 children. The following days - till now- have also witnessed dozens of casualties.

On October 3, Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad announced that the total toll of the Israeli bombing since October 2023 is the killing of about 2,000 people, including 127 children and 261 women, along with the wounding of about tens of thousands.

Over Thursday and Friday (October 3 and 4), the southern suburb of Beirut was subjected to intensified Israeli bombing. 

‘The New York Times’ said that the Israeli raids targeted a meeting of Hezbollah senior leaders, including Nasrallah’s cousin and the possible candidate to succeed him Hashem Safieddine. Media reports indicated that the size of the latest strike was much bigger than the one which killed Nasrallah. This reflects Israel’s determination to deliver fatal blows on Hezbollah this time. The fate of Safieddine is so far unclear and contact with him has been lost, according to ‘Axios’.

The escalating bombing wave has been running concurrent with direct ground battles being fought between the Israeli army and Hezbollah fighters in south Lebanon. This began with Tel Aviv’s declaration on September 30 that it has launched “limited and targeted” ground operations against Hezbollah outposts near the borders of south Lebanon. Tel Aviv said the operation was aimed at eliminating Hezbollah’s presence near the border in order to ensure that the thousands of Israelis in the north who were displaced during cross-border strikes after October 7, 2023, are able to return to their homes.

Israeli Goals

In terms of the Israeli goals behind this military operation, Lebanese writer and political researcher Dr. Assem Abdulrahman wonders whether Israel aims to occupy Lebanese territories or to merely eliminate Hezbollah.

He told ’South24 Center‘: “The Israeli enemy is totally aware that any attempts to occupy Lebanese territories won’t be an easy picnic, given the nature of confrontations with armed groups such as Hezbollah and the Qassam Brigades (Hamas’ military wing) that adopt guerilla tactics, putting the attacking party in a difficult position.”

“The presence of the international forces (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). at Lebanon’s southern borders constitutes an obstacle against any Israeli intentions for expansion or occupation. The presence of these forces is considered a redline by the international community. Moreover, Hezbollah still retains big military capabilities that can enable it to fight Israeli forces in case of the eruption of any ground confrontation,” he added.

Lebanese political analyst Tariq Abu Zeinab told ’South24 Center‘: “The confrontations between the Israeli enemy and Hezbollah are still ongoing in south Lebanon. Tel Aviv seeks to eliminate Hezbollah leaders following the assassination of senior figures within the group, foremost of whom was Hassan Nasrallah.”

He pointed out that “the situation in south Lebanon is characterized by ongoing escalation as the border areas are witnessing violent battles that have led to the displacement of many people.”

Possible Scenarios

Assem Abdulrahman believes that the ongoing tensions between Hezbollah and Israel raise many concerns among Lebanese people regarding the expansion of the fighting. However, he pointed out that the Lebanese people are more concerned over the war’s humanitarian ramifications. He added: “The Lebanese people, despite their different sects and regions they belong to, are unified in their concern about the war’s implications, regardless of their political stance toward the Hezbollah.”

Abdulrahman stressed that the Israeli army is currently focused on hitting Hezbollah's infrastructure, including arms depots and the houses of its leaders, especially in the areas close to the southern suburb of Beirut which is considered Hezbollah's main stronghold.

Abu Zeinab believes the situation in Lebanon is still ambiguous as it is difficult to predict what will happen during the following days due to the ongoing escalation. He said: ”The tensions are still continuing. The American big support to Israel further complicates the scenario. Lebanon is paying the price of foreign agendas since the events of October 7, 2023, that has witnessed the growing unity among Iranian regional arenas, including Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon.”

Regional Ramifications

According to Abu Zeinab, the only solution to the current crisis “is to apply the international decisions and the outputs of the Taif Agreement of 1989. This is along with the election of a new Lebanese president and the disengagement with the Iran-led regional axis”. He stressed that Lebanon “needs restoring its sovereignty away from regional conflicts that directly affects its internal stability”.

Regarding the expected responses by Hezbollah and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance in case of the escalation of military operations, Assem Abdulrahman said: “In light of the exposure of the Syrian opposition and Bashar al-Assad’s involvement in settlement deals with some regional powers, it is likely that the responses will be limited to launching missiles by Hezbollah which will be thwarted by the Israeli Iron Dome”.

He explained that “the Iranian-American coordination reveals the existence of prior understandings about how to manage this conflict. This means that the Axis of Resistance has begun to gradually lose its strength”.

Yemen and Lebanon

Regarding the effects of these developments on the situation in Yemen, Assem Abdulrahman said: “The Lebanese situation is always linked to Yemen at the security and military levels. This is due to the nature of the relationship between Hezbollah and the Houthis and their Godfather Iran.”

He added: “There is a prevailing belief among most Lebanese people that Hezbollah has become something from the past (following the elimination of Nasrallah), even if it takes a long time to comprehend that. The devastating blow that hit it in the depth has devastated the group at the political, organizational, and popular levels.”

He explained that “the most prominent development in the Shiite arena in particular is the belief by some that there is an Iranian deal with the United States that has led to a temporary abandonment of Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies to consolidate the so-called new order in the region. This means that the Hezbollah scenario will be repeated in Yemen. The Houthi military depth will be hit, making them a mere political movement”.

It is worth mentioning that Lebanon has already suffered deep internal crises at the political and economic levels. The Israeli invasion and the military escalation threaten to exacerbate its various problems to reach a critical stage. Furthermore, the expansion of the war toward the small country drags the region into open possibilities, despite the Israeli claims about a limited military operation.