Supporting South Yemen’s independence could lay the groundwork for a more stable, less Iran-influenced Yemen.

Dr. Abdul Galil Shaif (South24 Center)

If a new Trump administration were to prioritize supporting South Yemen’s aspirations for independence, several strategic steps could be taken to forge strong ties with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and bolster the development of a stable, thriving South Yemeni state. By investing in both military and economic support for the STC, the US could help establish a model of governance and prosperity that might weaken Houthi control in the North and counterbalance Iranian influence in Yemen.

Michael Rubin’s article, ‘US Foreign Policy Blind Spot: Ignoring Somaliland and South Yemen’s Case for Independence’, presents a compelling argument for why South Yemen’s quest for independence represents not just a regional challenge but a strategic opportunity for the United States. Rubin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, highlights the risks of neglecting Southern aspirations, warning that failure to support legitimate local movements like the Southern Transitional Council (STC) could leave a vacuum for adversaries like Iran and extremist groups to exploit. Conversely, engaging with the STC offers the US a chance to realign its foreign policy by investing in stability and self-determination in a region of critical importance.

Rubin’s analysis underscores the unique opportunity South Yemen provides to the US by its geographic and strategic significance, particularly in safeguarding the Bab-el-Mandab Strait. Supporting the STC could also set a precedent for US foreign policy—one that prioritizes empowering local actors capable of creating functional, resilient states. Rubin views the STC as a credible partner, whose leadership has shown a commitment to governance, security, and countering extremism, making it a practical ally in a region rife with instability.

Furthermore, Rubin emphasizes that backing South Yemen’s independence could serve as a bulwark against Houthi aggression and Iranian influence, offering a compelling alternative to the dysfunctional and divided government in the North. Rubin’s article argues that recognizing and acting on this opportunity could transform into a significant success story in the Middle East.

Military Support for the STC

1. The STC, which has been fighting a lone battle in countering and pushing back the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) terror group from the Southern governorates of Shabwa, Abyan and Hadramout, would be greatly helped if the US provides the Southern forces with much-needed support. This could be in the form of advanced training, intelligence-sharing, more visible anti-terrorism support, and equipping the STC to better secure its territories from incursions by Houthis and other extremist groups. The STC, which is looked up to by the people of the Southern governorates for defending their areas from the AQAP, would thus be able to provide more stability to the areas under their control. This would also warn off groups funded by regional states with a vested interest in creating dissensions in the South project to keep away. The STC would prove a valuable partner for the US in countering Iran-backed militias in Yemen.

2. The US with its vast funds could provide much-needed financial help to the STC to help equip it with the latest defensive and offensive weaponry and technology, including anti-drone systems, communication technology, and surveillance tools to help protect the South from aggression from the Houthis and the AQAP, which the Iran-backed militia tacitly backs. These efforts would help empower the STC and allied Southern forces like the Hadrami Elite Forces in their military operations against the AQAP, like the ‘Arrows of the East’, during which the Southern forces fought bravely - minus any Western help - to expel the terror group from Abyan governorate. Keeping in mind their effective counter-terrorism capabilities, the US needs to back the STC fully. This would allow the STC to hold and defend key Southern cities and thereby establish a secure base for an independent Southern state.

3. Given the strategic importance of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden global trade routes, the US should waste no time in helping to bolster the STC’s maritime and border security infrastructure. This could be done by helping train and developing an effective coast guard force, including by way of providing the latest weaponry and technology, which would not just boost the STC's capacity to manage its coastal borders, and push back the Houthis, it would be valuable in helping to secure international shipping lanes vital for global trade. A well-equipped and trained Southern coast guard would likely be more effective in thwarting Houthi maritime attacks, as the Southern forces are familiar with the Houthi way of planning and functioning – which the US-led multi-nation naval operation ‘Prosperity Guardian’ has sadly failed to do since its launch a year ago. The US should also note that in the wake of the Prosperity Guardian’s ineffectiveness the Houthi threats are becoming more brazen, which is holding the entire world to ransom. 

Economic Support for South Yemen’s Development

1. With the PLC having visibly failed in governance and providing amenities and services to people, and with the STC proving to be the only group that it looking after the people in areas under its control, the US should recognize this factor and focus on rebuilding critical infrastructure in South Yemen, such as transportation, water, and energy systems, helping improve the economic growth factors. Additionally, the US could tap the large force of educated and intelligent youth to create viable employment opportunities for them in different sectors. This could be done by facilitating foreign direct investment by American and allied companies in sectors like healthcare, fintech, education, telecommunications, renewable energy and also construction, to promote economic diversification in South Yemen.

2. While the STC is doing its best to provide public services in its areas, it is hampered by lack of funding and an ineffective PLC. Through US funding and technical assistance, the STC could improve its local governance systems and deliver better healthcare, education, and welfare services. This would help set South Yemen apart from the Houthi-controlled North, where public services are in a dire state.

3. Tapping South Yemen’s economic potential could be a two-way win-win proposition, not just due to its vast oil and gas resources but also its minerals and rich agricultural produce, including the best coffee. A peaceful firmament is always beneficial to developing industries, and recognizing this, the US and South Yemen could build a formal economic partnership, which would encourage domestic production and international trade. Furthermore, economic support initiatives could include partnerships with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, linking South Yemen’s economy to regional trade networks which would strengthen its economic independence from North Yemen and Houthi influence.

Political and Diplomatic Support for Southern Independence

The US needs to advocate for the recognition of a South Yemen at the United Nations and engage with the GCC allies for this, as some of the members will need to be strongly convinced to let go of their vested interest and allow for the creation of an independent South Yemen under the STC. 

1. The US could act as a mediator between the STC and neighbouring countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to establish win-win economic and security ties that would enhance South Yemen’s stature as an independent state that can stand on its own. Moreover, an STC-governed South Yemen aligned with these regional powers would present a united and formidable front against the Houthis, which would pressure Iran to back off from its involvement in Yemen.

2. Moreover, a thriving Southern state that can showcase its economic growth, effective governance, and security will act like an indirect pressure on the Houthi leadership in the North, as the Yemenis there will be able to see the stark difference in their abject state to a much more prosperous and secure and happy South Yemen. 

The Strategic Impact on the Houthis and Iran

By supporting an economically stable and militarily capable Southern state, the US could boast of its backing for South Yemen as a model of governance, one that contrasts starkly with the hardships and instability in Houthi-controlled areas. As South Yemen gains economic and political momentum, this “model effect” could diminish Houthi legitimacy and catalyse popular discontent in the North. North Yemenis, seeing the successes of a Southern state, might push back against Houthi rule, reducing the Houthis' power base and potentially driving internal pressures that limit Iran's influence.

Karen Dabrowska’s analysis in her article “Intractable Problems for Yemen’s Presidential Council” underscores the growing dysfunction of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) and its inability to address the nation’s persistent crises. She argues that the South’s bid for independence appears increasingly inevitable, as the PLC fails to govern or unify anti-Houthi factions. However, the STC's success depends on consolidating leadership and securing international recognition—obstacles it has yet to overcome. She warns that without decisive action from Southern leaders, Yemen risks becoming a collection of micro-states perpetuating conflict indefinitely. This analysis highlights the urgent need for a coherent Southern strategy amid the broader collapse of Yemen's political unity.

By aligning the US with a South Yemeni state, Washington could indirectly empower opposition groups in North Yemen, making it increasingly difficult for the Houthis to sustain their hold on power.

If the US were to support the establishment of an autonomous or independent Southern state through the STC, it could advance multiple strategic goals: enhancing regional stability, securing Red Sea trade routes, diminishing Iranian influence, and undermining Houthi power in the North. 

In short, supporting South Yemen’s independence could lay the groundwork for a more stable, less Iran-influenced Yemen.