Sudan: From Political Solution Moves to Military Escalation

On the morning of April 15th, violent clashes erupted between the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). They have been ongoing for the third day in a row amid mutual attempts to extend influence in some areas inside and outside the capital city of Khartoum. Some of the clashes have reached the Republican Palace, airports, and vital locations. The first day of these confrontations led the death toll to reach 56 from both sides according to a statement by the Central Committee Of Sudan Doctors. Moreover, 595 military personnel and civilians were injured. Other death casualties were documented in Khartoum Airport and Omdurman as well as the Nyala, El Obeid and Al Fashir in the west of Khartoum.

The Sudanese Army is led by "Abdulfatah Al-Burhan". He is the head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, formed in May 2021 as an institution that holds power in participation with the civilian government since overthrowing former President Omar Al-Bashhir in 2019. 

Al-Burhan's Deputy Head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council is Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo who is known as "Hamedti". The latter is the Commander of RSF that were previously consisting of paramilitary militias known as "Janjaweed". They fought on behalf of the Sudanese government during the Darfur War. Moreover, Hamedti sent part of its forces to participate in the Yemen war against the Houthi militia as part of the Riyadh-led military Coalition. The escalation in Sudan was not a surprise as it was preceded by several stations to implicitly reach this outcome. The most prominent of which included Al-Burhan's declaration about dissolving the civilian government and imposing a state of emergency in October 2021 and his pledge to hold elections in July 2023. Moreover, the main political forces in Sudan signed the "Framework Agreement" in late December 2022, which included the exclusion of the army from politics and making security reforms. This agreement was sponsored by the UN, the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the quartet (the UAE, Saudi Arabia, United States, and European Union). The agreement was supposed to be signed in early April, but the signing was postponed twice, without announcing a new date yet.

In February this year, disputes escalated further over the mechanisms, timing, and conditions of the merging operation. The army proposed subjecting the RSF officers to the conditions stipulated in the Military Academy, stopping external contracts and recruitment, and staying away from political work. On the other hand, RSF had some conditions before the merging process including restructuring the armed forces, criminalizing military coups, imposing civilian oversight on the military institution through the parliament, reviewing and developing the military doctrine and clearing the army and the RSF forces from the elements of the former regime and those with ideologies. However, the escalation of disputes delayed the signing of the final agreement to transfer power to civilians, according to what was scheduled to be announced in early April.

Later, On the night of April 12th, the Sudanese Army warned that the state is passing through a dangerous turn. This came after the deployment of armed RSF in Khartoum and the main cities, especially since these moves occurred without the green light of army commanders or even coordinating with them. RSF deployed their units in the capital, Merowe, and other cities. More than 50 vehicles affiliated with RSF entered Khartoum. Reinforcements also arrived from Darfur, western Sudan, which eventually led to the outbreak of violent confrontations between the two sides.