It can be said the downfall of the Syrian regime delivers a clear warning to the Houthis, in particular, and other parties in general, that regional alliances don’t provide eternal survival guarantees.

Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24)

On December 8, the Middle East witnessed the downfall of the Assad regime in Syria after five decades of its iron-fisted rule in a historical event that wasn't expected even a few weeks earlier. Forces affiliated with the armed resistance, led by ’Haya’t Tahrir Al-Sham‘ (HTS), took control of major cities of Aleppo and Hama and large parts of the south before entering the capital city of Damascus in a lightning offensive that lasted just 10 days without facing any real military confrontation. 

Bashar Al-Assad fled to Russia with his family, while HTS chief Ahmed Al-Sharaa (known as Abu Mohammad Al-Julani) delivered a victory speech from the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus. He is a prominent Islamist jihadi who has progressed to the national political scene as the leader of Haya’t Tahrir Al-Sham, of which he has been emir since 2017. The HTS’ takeover of Damascus was a dramatic scene that pleased millions of anti-Assad Syrians. However, this poses many questions and hypothesis about the prospects of the situation in a country torn by 13 years of a grinding civil war. 

Moreover, there are mounting queries about the impact of this transformation on the regional arena which has been raging already since October 7, 2023 when Palestinian factions led by Hamas attacked Israel in the so-called ’Al-Aqsa Storm‘ operation. The Hamas attack opened the door for a brutal Israeli reprisal which has crushed Gaza's land and human beings, killing tens of thousands of Palestinians. 

A state of deep doubt has dominated the Arab stances toward the latest events in Syria. However, the Israeli aerial strikes on military and civil facilities in Syria over the past days and the occupation of new areas in the Syrian Golan have created a unified Arab stand condemning these assaults as well as calling for preserving the unity and territorial integrity of the Arab state. Nonetheless, the stance toward the new rulers of Syria continues to be undefined as they are designated as terrorists by the United States and Russia. 

In Yemen, which has experienced its own crisis for 10 years, dealing with the Syrian developments has been intense. A main reason behind this is the fact that the Assad regime was a main cornerstone of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” in the region. The Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis have of late played an escalating role in the axis by launching a military campaign against international shipping in the Bab Al-Mandab strait amid the background of the Gaza war. This has developed into a direct clash with the American forces. 

Prior to the Assad regime’s downfall, the Lebanese Hezbollah, a close Houthi ally, was subjected to devastating Israeli strikes that killed its powerful Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and damaged its political and military infrastructure. This has diverted attention toward Yemen and the Houthi militia who have emphasized that they will continue their missile and drone attacks against shipping in the Red Sea and on Israel like what they did on December 16 when they launched a missile attack toward Tel Aviv.

The Stances of Yemeni Parties

The Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) hailed the downfall of the Bashar Al-Assad regime during a meeting on December 8.  

An official statement said: “PLC congratulated the brotherly Syrian people on the overthrow of the Iranian guardianship regime over the Syrian Arab Republic and the return of Damascus to the Arab fold, affirming Yemen’s position in support of the territorial integrity of Syria, respecting its independence, sovereignty, and the will of its people for freedom and change, and establishing peace, security, and stability”. 

In a congratulatory message, ‘The National Bloc of Political Parties and Components‘ (a coalition led by the Muslim Brotherhood through the Islah Party established in November with US support) said the overthrow of the Assad regime brings Syria back into the Arab fold and marks the beginning of Syria’s “liberation from the Iranian interventions in the region”.

On December 12, the Houthi Leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi delivered a speech about the developments in Syria. He didn’t devote much defense to Assad, focusing largely on the Israeli attacks in Syria. He doubted the credibility and tendency of the Syrian armed resistance, warning about Israel’s intentions to occupy Syria and destroy its army as well as its regional expansion toward the other Levant countries and Egypt.

Moreover, Al-Houthi stressed on the continuation of the Houthi stance to support Gaza and confront Israel, describing what is happening as an attempt to “change the region and implement the new Middle East plot”.

Commenting on the possible resumption of the war in Yemen and whether the Houthis will be targeted like the other groups of the ’Axis of Resistance‘, Houthi Deputy Foreign Minister Hussin Alezzi said on the day of the Assad regime’s downfall: “Sanaa works for peace as if it will be achieved tomorrow and prepares for war as if it will last forever. World has to select between both. There is nothing that matches our readiness to peace except for our readiness to war”.

Houthi spokesman and Head of their Political Team, Mohammed Abdulsalam, said in a televised interview: “The situation in Yemen is completely different from what happened in Syria where the armed groups took control without any confrontations with the Syrian army and without a war. Everything would have changed if the Syrian army had held up for just a week.”

He added: “We aren’t worried. The other party is the one that should worry. This is because flaring any battle now means a raging war on land, air, and sea.” The Houthi leader reminded of the “hundreds of thousands” of armed elements who were recruited within the ranks of his group over the past year in North Yemen as part of “the public mobilization” for Gaza and Palestine and against Israel.

Although the PLC has welcomed the downfall of the Assad regime, its main parties haven’t separately commented on these events as usual. They include the Southern Transitional Council (STC) which led wide-ranging political moves regarding Yemen in Riyadh during November.

Adel Al-Shabahi, an STC official, told ’South24 Center‘: “Syria is experiencing a decisive phase following years of conflict and protests against the Assad regime that witnessed repression and violence which led to the killing of over a million Syrians and the displacement of more than 15 million”.

According to him, “these conditions led to a geographical division of Syria into different governance areas, like that under the Assad regime, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and several Syrian factions. The overthrow of the regime represents a historical moment that has pleased Syrians after their long suffering under repression and torture”.

He pointed out that “this downfall represents the end of one of the oldest Iran allying regimes in the region. Hafez Al-Assad (Bashar’s father) used to publicly support Iran since its war with Iraq despite the national slogans that were raised then in Syria. These developments will certainly leave a negative impact on the Houthis, especially after the decline of the Hezbollah's role”.

He believes that “Syria may be a victim of new international plots to reshape the geopolitics of the region in a way that contradicts with the aspirations of the people”.

As for the STC’s position, Al-Shabahi said that its “leaders always underscore their openness to all countries. They haven’t expressed any reservations toward the current changes in Syria. We are witnessing a historical moment. However, there are ongoing challenges and we should be cautious toward the coming developments”.

Accordingly, it can be said the downfall of the Syrian regime delivers a clear warning to the Houthis, in particular, and other parties, in general, that regional alliances don’t provide eternal survival guarantees. Moreover, the fate of the Syrian regime may put additional pressure on the Houthis amid the decline of Hezbollah which was the most prominent military and political depth for them.

On the other hand, the overthrow of Al-Assad may encourage the anti-Houthi parties, led by the PLC, to move forward toward bolder military options to weaken the Houthis as well as cutting off their supply lines and regional support. Yet, this remains a risky option in light of the complexities of the internal scene and the multiplicity of regional and international actors.