"The peace roadmap in its current form is neither feasible nor practical under the present circumstances. Saudi Arabia designed the current roadmap to reflect its strategic priorities and desire to exit the Yemeni quagmire. However, despite the good intentions, many Yemenis fear that the roadmap will entrench the Houthis’ military and political dominance rather than achieving a balanced and inclusive peace".

Ala Mohsen (South24 Center)

Introduction

A year ago, UN Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg announced a peace roadmap that would end Yemen’s decade-long civil war. The roadmap aims to transform the current informal truce into a permanent nation-wide ceasefire. It includes a number of confidence-building steps, such as payment of public sector salaries, resumption of oil exports, reopening of all roads and crossings, and lifting of restrictions on Sana’a Airport and Hodeidah Port. The implementation of this roadmap was set to take place over a three-year period. However, one year has passed, and very little progress has been made except in the partial opening of roads in Taiz and Marib, limited prisoner exchange deals, and easing restrictions on Yemeni ports. 

Even though the roadmap was announced after the eruption of hostilities in Gaza, many believe this ongoing regional war has halted the implementation of the peace roadmap.  The Gaza war has indeed diverted attention from the Yemeni conflict, with key factors such as the Houthis shifting their prioritizing to target Israel and its interests in the region. However, even in the absence of this conflict, the implementation of this peace roadmap would have faced tremendous complications due to internal deficiencies, lack of domestic support, and other “grand” changes in the international scene. 

Problematic Design: A Top-down Roadmap? 

The peace roadmap is essentially a product of the Houthi-Saudi backdoor communication, facilitated by the Chinese-mediated Saudi-Iran détente announced in March 2023. In these talks, the Saudis offered serious concessions in exchange for their exit from the Yemeni war. With the stalemate and the inability of the anti-Houthi forces to gain any more territories and alter the balance of power in their favor, the cost of Saudi involvement in the Yemeni conflict was getting too much for the kingdom to bear. For this reason, it wanted to rebrand itself as a mediator rather than a conflict actor in Yemen’s civil war. This explains why Saudi Arabia was the first to welcome and support the announced roadmap. As for the Houthis, this roadmap is an excellent opportunity to push for their war demands and legitimize their rule without giving up the vast territories they already control. 

Despite the widespread discussions about this peace initiative, skepticism remains high regarding its feasibility and relevance.  Southern Transitional Council (STC) official Mansour Saleh described the roadmap as mere media talk and does not exist on the ground. For this reason, the peace roadmap was probably dead before it was even born, especially considering there is little transparency about the deal. Former Yemeni Socialist Party chairman and current Yemeni ambassador to the UK, Yassin Saeed Noman, expressed these concerns, stating they are still "awaiting clarification and details about the Saudi roadmap.”  If high-profile officials share these pessimistic views of the roadmap, what else can we expect from others distant from the corridors of politics?

Despite its potential to advance the peace process, the proposed peace roadmap has raised several legitimate concerns. Notably, many Yemenis feel the roadmap will ultimately empower the Houthis at their expense. While this roadmap may guarantee some sort of ceasefire between the Saudis and the Houthis group, it will not bring peace to Yemen, especially since powerful Yemeni actors were sidelined during these consultations. For instance, while the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) has welcomed the UN-led peace efforts,  some members of the PLC including Aidrous Al-Zubaidi and Sultan Al-Aradah, objected to provisions in the roadmap that allocate a share of hydrocarbon revenues from areas governed by the PLC to the Houthis. The objection reflects the conviction that the roadmap does not satisfy Yemenis’ true aspirations for peace.

Grand Regional Transformations 

Without doubt, the regional context that gave rise to the roadmap has changed drastically. In response to the October 7, 2023, attack, Israel led a retaliatory campaign to weaken the Iran-led ‘resistance axis’ in addition to its primary objective to uproot Hamas from the Gaza Strip. Igniting a chain reaction in the region, these successive blows to Iran’s allies are shifting the balance of power to the advantage of Iran’s adversaries. The most radical manifestation of this reshaping of the Middle East is the recent overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria. Despite withstanding tremendous pressures since 2011, the Assad ruling family was surprisingly toppled in a matter of days after a rapid offensive by the opposition forces. Under the leadership of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the opposition was able to capture major cities before forcing the president to flee the capital, Damascus. This setback for the resistance axis would have been unfathomable if it were not for Iran and Hezbollah being preoccupied with their survival in the face of Israel's strikes.

With Assad gone and Iran and its proxies weakened, it would only make sense that Houthis would be Israel’s next target. In fact, Israel has already started bombing targets inside Yemen to undermine Houthi capabilities. The latest of those attacks is Israeli airstrikes against Houthi-controlled infrastructure, including ports and energy facilities in Sana’a and Hodeidah on December 19, 2024. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel will continue to act against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Simultaneously, the US has started to impose stricter sanctions on Houthi personalities. Under such circumstances, the Houthis are now facing new pressures that will embolden their rivals. This shift in the balance of power could potentially reinvigorate anti-Houthi factions in Yemen, who may see the weakening of the Houthis as an opportunity to reclaim territory and reassert their dominance.

In all likelihood, these grand regional developments will certainly complicate the already stagnant peace process in the country. UN Envoy Grundberg expressed his frustration that “Yemen can’t wait forever for the peace roadmap”. He also warned against losing the necessary momentum for peace, indicating that the peace roadmap might never materialize in the near future. Some evidence already suggests this is the case, especially with the recent flurry of meetings between Yemeni officials, regional leaders, and Western diplomats in Riyadh.  The absence of any discussion on the roadmap in these meetings likely points to an imminent military action against the Houthis by PLC-led Yemeni forces.

Concluding Remarks

For the reasons elaborated in this article, the peace roadmap in its current form is neither feasible nor practical under the present circumstances. Saudi Arabia designed the current roadmap to reflect its strategic priorities and desire to exit the Yemeni quagmire. However, despite the good intentions, many Yemenis fear that the roadmap will entrench the Houthis’ military and political dominance rather than achieving a balanced and inclusive peace. However, given the changing landscape with the weakened Iran-led resistance axis in the region, the new balance of power invites a revision of the current roadmap for a more practical, inclusive peace process.    

Finally, even in the unlikely scenario where the Saudis employ sufficient pressure on the PLC to sign the roadmap and share power with the Houthis, the agreement will not hold long before it breaks down. The transition led by former president Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi provides a cautionary tale that any top-down political process that lacks local support and relies heavily on foreign backers is doomed to fail. The National Dialogue Conference (2013-2014) was supposed to be an open forum for Yemenis to deliberate their future. However, it became another missed opportunity for peace when that space was hijacked and manipulated by influential local and regional stakeholders. Therefore, this imposed roadmap also risks being another short-term ceasefire rather than providing a good foundation for sustainable peace.