Even if the Houthis stop their actions, there are apparently no guarantees that Israel and its allies will back off their intentions to strike the Yemeni militia to prevent a recurrence of these events in the future.

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Abdullah Al-Shadli (South24)

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The intensity of the military escalation between the Iran-backed Houthis and Israel reached its peak during December 2024. The Houthis launched more than nine announced missile and drone attacks against the Israeli depth. On the other hand, Israel carried out airstrikes that repeatedly targeted the port of Hodeidah and Sanaa International Airport in addition to power facilities in the two governorates controlled by the Yemeni militia. 

The Houthis have vowed to indefinitely continue their attacks against the Israeli depth and the ships that pass through Bab Al-Mandab strait if the war in Gaza doesn’t stop. On the other hand, the Israeli leaders have threatened the Houthis with the same fate as they dealt to Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah. Israeli media platforms described the Houthis as being the most active and dangerous group in the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” after the capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah were largely destroyed in the Israeli attacks, which in turn also contributed to the downfall of the Syrian Assad regime.

So, what are the prospects of the Israeli-Houthi escalation that began in November 2023 and is expected to continue at a stronger pace with the beginning of the new year 2025?

On December 22, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israeli “will act with force against the Houthis”, adding that “the Houthis will face the same fate as Iran's other arms in the region”.

"Just as we acted forcefully against the terrorist arms of Iran’s axis of evil, so too, we will act against the Houthis. The result will be the same. However, in this case, we are not acting alone. Like us, the United States and other countries see the Houthis not only as a threat to international maritime navigation but to the international order as well,” he added.

The Israeli PM explained: "Therefore, we will take forceful, determined and sophisticated action. Even if it takes time, the outcome will be the same, as it has been with the other terror arms”.

Israeli writer Lior ben-Ari underscored the stance adopted by her country toward the Houthis. She told ’South24 Center’: “The Iran-backed Houthis have attacked Israel since the beginning of the war by using missiles and drones.”

“Israel won’t allow any threats against the security of its people. We saw the consequences of that against Iran’s partners. We won’t allow the Houthis to be a new threat platform from Yemen. The Houthis should focus on helping their people rather than supporting Gaza or achieving Iran’s wishes,” she said.

American researcher Nick Brumfield, who is specializing in Yemen affairs, believes that after the Hezbollah has been neutralized, Israel and the United States will increasingly turn their attention to Yemen. He told ’South24 Center‘: “With the Houthi’s continuing their attacks in the Red Sea and on Israel, the Israeli strikes last week on Sanaa and the Red Sea ports make this clear”.

According to him, this may increase the rate of Houthi attacks, based on previous dynamics. 

Ibrahim Jalal, a non-resident fellow at Carnegie, too agrees that the situation may lead to more tension.

He told ’South24 Center‘: “This escalation reflects a shift in the Israeli strategy that may move toward targeting Yemen’s civil infrastructure. Israel will likely continue targeting civil facilities in Hodeidah and Sanaa, thinking that this will strangle the Houthis, economically and socially”.

Impact

On December 8, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg said in an interview: “it isn’t possible to move forward with the roadmap right now, because I don't think that the implementation of that roadmap would be possible". He pointed out that “Yemen's warring parties and beleaguered people cannot wait indefinitely for a roadmap to peace before the country slips back to war”.

He added: “The complicating factor now is the regional destabilisation, where Yemen has become an integral part through the attacks in the Red Sea." In previous UNSC briefings, Grundberg admitted that the regional situation has a big impact on the political path of the Yemeni crisis. There is current speculation about their impact on even the military trajectory.

Indeed, over the past days, the Northern Taiz fronts have witnessed hostilities between forces affiliated with the Yemeni government and the Houthi militia. These confrontations are unprecedented, since April 2022 when the UN truce was announced. Although the latter officially expired in October 2022, it has unofficially continued till now. The Houthi fronts against the Southern forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Lahj and Al-Dhalea have also witnessed serious clashes throughout 2024.

However, the impact of the regional situation on Yemen doesn’t stop at the military level. The latest Houthi-Israeli escalation portends dire humanitarian ramifications, according to Brumfield, who said: “Israel has targeted vital civil infrastructure such as ports and power stations. Even if they don’t lead to more escalation of the internal conflict, they will have a big humanitarian effect”.

Will They Stop?

There have been ongoing efforts toward reaching a ceasefire in Gaza. If these succeed, the following question will impose itself: Will the Houthis fulfil their pledge to stop their attacks against maritime navigation and Israel? Will such a development be able to curb the Israeli-Houthi escalation?

In this regard, Brumfield believes that “the Houthis may temporarily stop their attacks if there is a chance to save face. While they will remain a long-term threat to navigation in Bab Al-Mandab, a ceasefire in Gaza will give them a break”.

However, even if the Houthis stop their actions, there are apparently no guarantees that Israel and its allies will back off their intentions to strike the Yemeni militia to prevent a recurrence of these events in the future. Netanyahu has repeatedly stressed his determination to destroy the groups affiliated with the Iranian “Axis of Resistance” and to even hit the Iranian regime itself to make a comprehensive change in the Middle East.

While Israeli media platforms said that Netanyahu is awaiting the inauguration of Donald Trump as US President on January 20 to strike at the Houthis and Iran, others believe that he is trying to resolve these files and install new facts on the ground before Trump’s arrival at the White House. During his election campaign, Trump pledged to extinguish the fire of wars in the Middle East and the world, but he didn’t ascertain how he would do that.

In early December, Trump threatened to launch a “historical strike” unless the Israeli hostages are released before his inauguration. This statement partially explains Trump’s plan to stop the wars in the region as it isn’t necessary to do this through political channels, according to observers, but through using power and harshness that he was known for during his previous presidential term.

This raises questions about the part related to the Houthis within this plan and whether he will raise their terrorism designation to the first degree like he did during the last days of his previous Presidential term.