Iranian Nuclear File: International Minimization and Regional Confrontational Strategy

عربي

The Iranian Nuclear issue is among the most dangerous files at the international community's top priorities. This is in conjunction with unstable world circumstances as this file is related with security, political and economic impact along the Middle East and subsequently to the whole world. In 2021, the world witnessed a number of negotiation tours between Iran and the five states which signed the 2015 Nuclear Deal (France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China) with indirect American participation in order to revive it.

In the first half of 2021, the negotiations witnessed a good degree of consensus until the election of the hardliner Ibrahim Raisi as Iran’s new President in June 2021. He selected a more hardcore government than its predecessor so the changes of the political faces in the “Islamic Republic” stumbled the negotiations in spite of their utmost importance for all parties. [1]

Although the talks between the two sides were resumed in late November 2021 amid conflicting positions, the statements by Iranian officials were promising. On Dec 30th, 2021, in a video published by Iran's Tasnim News Agency, the Iranian Negotiator “Ali Bagheri" said that some changes related to lifting sanctions were written by the two sides adding that the first days in the 8th Tour of Negotiations [2] witnessed a relatively satisfactory progress.

On the same day, Iranian Defense Ministry spokesman Ahmad Hosseini said that the Simorgh or "Phoenix'' rocket was launched by a satellite carrier carrying three instruments into space to send them 470 kilometers (290 miles) away. Despite the failure of this experience, this move raised fears about whether the technology used in launching satellites could enhance the development of Iranian ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. [3]

This paper attempts to present a realistic reading for the transformations and the troubles accompanying the course of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file in light of the many regional and high-paced variables, as well as the goals that drive the Iranian policies. It attempts to avoid the exaggeration trap which usually dominates such a topic including its impact on the Yemeni file.

The Deal, officially known as “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA) was the most important in terms of preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. It included Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia as equal partners while the USA enjoyed a virtual right to veto with the knowledge of Iran. 

The Deal has been activated for 2 years but after Donald Trump’s ascendance to the White House, and with being Influenced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and some Republican hawks, the US Administration announced its withdrawal from it in May 2018. [4]

The US then led a campaign to pressure Tehran on the diplomatic, economic and military levels known as “Maximum Pressure” [5]. The targets of the campaign included the Supreme Leader, the Foreign Minister, judges, Generals, scientists, banks, oil facilities, Shipping lines, airline, charities and trade allies such as Venezuelan President. 

Moreover, Trump Administration classified the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iran’s strongest military body, as a terrorist group in an unprecedented American measure against an army of any other countries [6]. First, after Trump's withdrawal, Iran adopted the "strategic patience" policy regarding its nuclear activities hoping that other parties of the deal-China-France-Germany-Russia-UK-could compensate it for economic loss caused by the American campaign. However, when promises of delivering the required support didn’t come true before the Iranian Presidential Elections, Tehran began adopting the “Maximum Resistance” policy by gradually lessening its commitment to the deal and increasing its military pressure in the areas of clashes with the United States [7] and its Middle Eastern allies.

After the election of Raisi, there was an apparent change in the Iranian policy as it signed a temporary deal with the International Atomic Energy Agency to implement the measure related with investigating Tehran’s nuclear activities. Meanwhile, the Conservative President announced that his government could adopt a more strict approach [8]. It is worth mentioning that Iran previously demanded compensation for the economic damages caused by Trump’s “Maximum Pressure’ campaign, which it estimated at the level of one trillion $. [9]