Aden (South24)

South24 Center for News and Studies launched on last Saturday a draft on an analytical file by a group of researchers and experts on the "local, regional and international repercussions of the recent developments in Shabwa Governorate, South Yemen.

The project launch comes with the inauguration of the South24 Center's office in the city of Aden and coincides with a series of accelerated political and military developments in Yemen and the region.

This is the English version of the project.

Summary

The swift victory achieved by the Southern Giants Brigades in the Southern governorate of Shabwa raised many questions about the nature of the political and military developments that will follow, along with their future impact. It also examines the positions adopted by the parties of the Yemeni conflict and how they will affect the regional and international trajectories.

Shabwa, which enjoys a strategic location and position, faced crucial challenges due to its being at the crossroads of multiple political projects. 

In August 2019, the Islah Party solidified its control over Shabwa, which made the governorate at the core of all the tensions. These factors helped the Iran-backed Houthis advance rapidly into large governorate areas. 

Currently, after driving the Houthis out of Shabwa, it seems that most internal and external powers are inclined to support the efforts of the new Shabwa Governor, Awad Al Awlaki, to strengthen the pillars of security and stability and to keep it away from being a starting point for internal conflicts or a spearhead in political projects.

However, for observers, the progress in Shabwa opened the door to assess and anticipate features about other developments during the next period. All local and regional parties were quick to directly outline their visions and agendas for the post-Shabwa phase after announcing the complete liberation of the areas previously seized by the Houthis. 

For example, the STC talked about the broad lines and policies upon which it will decide on the participation in the Coalition's military and political efforts to penetrate the depth of Northern areas. The Coalition's spokesman also outlined the plans and the projects of the Saudi-led Coalition during the coming stage. On the other hand, the heavy defeats incurred by the Houthis in Shabwa pushed them to respond by relying on their missile capabilities in Shabwa itself, Marib, and outside Yemen. 

This file provides an intensified and extensive reading about the developments’ features and nature in the next stage. 

This includes determining the possibility of Southern Forces' participation in the battles against the Houthis in the depth of Northern areas and understanding the circumstances. Furthermore, the file analyses the strategy adopted by the active local and regional parties, the conditions that control the paths of the military aspect there, and the ramifications by all of this on developing the needs of the Yemeni file with its regional and international ties and the UN-led peace efforts as well as their impact on regional and international files especially Iran's nuclear file negotiations. 

Moreover, the file presents a reading of the military scene regarding different active local competing powers, notably the Houthis in North, the Coalition's available options during the next stage in light of the latest Houthi attacks and the intensified airstrikes launched by the Coalition against Houthi locations.  It also looks at the choices which could be adopted by the US towards its Gulf allies. 

Additionally, the file addresses approaches that need to be reconsidered, including the UN and international community's description of the situation in Yemen and dealing with its complex crises and involved parties in a way that practically leads to a cease-fire and prevailing peace in the country that has witnessed seven years of a devastating war which led to the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. 

Components of the analytic file:

- To download the entire project of the analytical file in PDF format (here)

- All opinions expressed in this file are those of the authors