What is Behind the ISIS Cell Infiltration in Yafa?

According to exclusive resources, some ISIS members who are Saudi nationals decided to return and surrender to their home authorities after the ISIS collapse in Yemen in 2020. Till now, there is not enough information about them. However, arresting a group that includes Saudis in Yafa raises questions and assumptions about whether the ISIS Saudi members in Yemen will remain as a card that can be used in the proper time as happened before. For example, Saudi Arabia was aware of the presence of AQAP within the ranks of the forces loyal to the Yemeni government and directly affiliated with the Islah Party in Abyan and Shabwa. Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia has turned a blind eye towards them over the past years. The only justification for this is that they can be used as a card in the conflict by providing them with a safe shelter or drones to be used in the operations.

However, Saudi Arabia announced in June 2019 that its special forces and their Yemeni counterparts were able to arrest the ISIS emir in Yemen who is known as Abu Osama Al-Muhajer along with the group's financial manager and some accompanied ISIS members in Al-Mahra, east of Aden.

Recently, two prominent American institutes warned of the ramifications of establishing new armed groups in South Yemen on the current counterterrorism operation and the STC's efforts against the AQAP in Abyan.

The presence of ISIS members in the Northern governorates certainly protects them from being targeted currently, especially since they don't practice any terrorist activities there. This means that heading toward South Yemen doesn't mean seeking for a safe haven to rearrange cards but it has its own goals.

These goals include carrying out operations inside vital cities such as Aden to depict these cities as being unsafe. This is amid the AQAP's inability to reach them after its operations were limited to Abyan and Shabwa due to the blows it received from the Southern forces.

Moreover, some parties may want to distract the efforts and concentration of the Southern forces that fight the AQAP in Abyan and Shabwa by creating new terrorism hotbeds in other governorates, especially after the unprecedented achievements made by these forces in this respect.

Additionally, the same parties may fear that the counterterrorism pattern in South Yemen recently would enjoy Western interest or praise, especially since this file largely affects the Western stance towards internal issues. Until recently, the Houthis used to court the West through the window of the war on terror, even indirectly. They made this by drawing a comparison between the security status in the areas under their control and those controlled by their rivals. Overcoming the terrorism crisis in South Yemen is much more important than overcoming it in North. This is given the history of the AQAP's activity and moves as well as the geographical importance of South Yemen.

Finally, it is important to point out that ISIS collapsed as a group nearly two years ago. If it decides to build itself again, it would select safe areas for it which don't include South Yemen currently. This means that its latest move toward Yafa was not in its interest but in the interests of other parties.