It isn’t unlikely that Iran will use the terrorist file in a way that makes the West believe that paying attention to the Israeli-Iranian war has given the terrorist groups the opportunity to rearrange their ranks.

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Ibrahim Ali* (South24)

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Iran is currently facing unprecedented challenges which threaten the gains it has achieved over the decades. While the nuclear issue was the focus of its conflict with the West, Tehran has managed to build a wide network of armed militias in the region that constitute a vital element in its regional deterrence strategy.

These militias, which are spread across countries such as Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, serve as a military extension to Iran as they have received logistic and training support to carry out wide-scale operations. This has been clear in the latest war in Gaza as these militias have played a pivotal role in the conflict under the pretext of supporting resistance in the Palestinian strip.

However, Israel, which has insisted from day one that Iran had links to the October 7, 2023, ‘Al-Aqsa Storm’ attack, has stressed that the targeting of Israeli territory and interests from Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq is aimed at crippling its existence. Driven by this belief, Israel has moved at the military and intelligence levels. It has turned Gaza into an uninhabitable city and destroyed most first-rank leaders of the Hezbollah and has similar plans for Yemen and Iraq along with continuing its operations inside Iran.[1]

The West has used the mollycoddling policy in dealing with Iran and its proxies over the past years. This attitude hindered freeing the city of Hodeidah from the Houthi hands in 2017 as the government forces weren’t allowed to enter Sanaa though they had reached as close as Fardhat Nahm, 60 km east of the capital. The West also handed over Iraq to Tehran-affiliated militias. However, the difference this time is that matters are related to the security of Israel. Although the West probably doesn’t endorse the Israeli actions against Iran and its agents in this manner at least, it finds it difficult to dissuade (Israeli PM Benjamin) Netanyahu from completing his plan.[2]

In case Iran isn’t able to confront Israel militarily to protect itself and its affiliated militias or to push the West to pressure Tel Aviv, it isn’t unlikely that it may resort to drastic measures, including terrorism. Reports indicate that the terrorist leaders are based in Tehran where they manage their branches under the supervision of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.  

It is important to note that the latest Al-Qaeda-Iran relationship isn’t ideological but a tactical one based on the intersection of interests. This increases the possibilities of watching their impact on the scene of events over the coming period.

The Phases of the Al-Qaeda-Iran Relationship

The relationship between Al-Qaeda and Iran began early. Tehran has allowed the Al-Qaeda leaders and elements to pass through its territories to and from Afghanistan. In return, the terror group hasn’t carried out operations against Iranian targets inside or outside Iran.

No one knows if this was achieved as a result of an agreement or direct understanding between the two parties, or whether it was an initiative from one of them and a kind of returning the favor by the other. However, what is certain is that this relationship developed later gradually. Reports about this relationship aren’t only based on intelligence information but also upon information gleaned from within the organization itself and from parties close to it, such as the ISIS which used to mock the Al-Qaeda for its links with Tehran. The ISIS’ branch in Yemen accused [3] the Al-Qaeda’s branch in Yemen (known as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula-AQAP) of facilitating transferring of oil derivatives to the Houthis in Sanaa through the Port of Mukalla when it held control on the coast of Hadramout.

Nonetheless, the relationship has remarkably developed since Ahmed Saif Al-Adel became the Leader of Al-Qaeda in August 2022 succeeding Ayman Al-Zawahiri who was killed in a US drone raid in the Afghan capital of Kabul in July. This relationship can be traced back to 2015, when Saif Al-Adel was released from his prison in Iran under a deal between Tehran and the AQAP. The deal included releasing the Iranian Cultural Attaché in Sanaa Ahmed Nikbakht, who had been abducted by the AQAP in 2013. However, according to many sources, after his release Saif Al-Adel refused to leave Iran. Al-Qaeda has avoided declaring him publicly as its leader due to his presence in Iran which may embarrass the group and enhance the accusations of having links with the Iranian regime.[4]

It can be said that the impact of this link has emerged clearly in Yemen as the AQAP has completely halted its operations against the Iran-backed Houthis since 2022, according to Yemen expert and researcher Elisabeth Kendall. Over the same period, the AQAP has received drones, and used them for the first time against the Southern forces. Iran is likely the source of these weapons, according to several sources.[5]

These aspects confirm a deep collaborative relationship between Iran and the AQAP that goes beyond mere mutual forgiveness to strategic coordination. This stirs several questions about the Iranian role in supporting and using the extremist organizations and their impact on the security and stability in the region.

Common Ground

Additionally, Iran looks at the Al-Qaeda’s stance toward the Arab regimes and the West as a common ground that can be used to build a tacit alliance which serves its strategic goals in the region. Iran has exploited the latest Gaza war to deepen this link through direct and indirect participation in the conflict as part of what it calls ’The Unity of Squares’.

Iran believes that expanding the circle of this alliance, which has emerged as a pro-Gaza front, contributes to enhancing its regional project that is facing growing challenges. Undoubtedly, the involvement of extremist Sunni organizations in this project, even though they are officially separated from the Iranian proxies, leads to rearranging of the Western priorities in a way that can ease the latest pressure on Iran and its allies.

Notably, the US’ strategy in the region focuses on counterterrorism, which can be used by Iran to reduce the international pressure against it.

Stirring the Terrorism File

Accordingly, questions arise about whether Iran will insert Al-Qaeda in the ongoing conflict in a way that would ease the Israeli military and intelligence pressure on it and its allies. This is particularly related to the fact that counterterrorism is a priority for the United States which may pressure Tel Aviv to avoid these types of operations.  

It seems that Iran knows well how, where, and when to direct the Al-Qaeda to raise Western concerns. This isn't limited to Al-Qaeda as Iran has the ability to push the ISIS indirectly and bring it back into the spotlight. It is important to note that ISIS adopts a strict stance toward the Iranian regime unlike Al-Qaeda. 

Iran may use the active branches of Al-Qaeda in Yemen, Somalia, and Syria. Iran has Shiite proxies in Yemen and Syria, which in turn have links and contacts with the Al-Qaeda branches there. In Somalia, there is ongoing coordination between the Al-Shabaab and Iran through the Houthis. Previously, Western media outlets revealed that the Houthis provided the Somali terror group with drones and weapons to carry out maritime operations in the Indian Ocean.[6]

On October 31, the US Envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking said: “One of the unfortunate offshoots of the Gaza conflict is that the Houthis have doubled down on their contacts with other malign actors in the region and beyond. Houthis’ collaboration with Somalia’s al-Shabaab terrorist group is quite extensive. The two groups are discussing ways to further menace and threaten freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.”[7]

It is noteworthy that ever since Ahmed Saif Al-Adel took on the leadership of Al-Qaeda, Iran has become more able to run the organization's branches through him in a way that serves its interests. It isn’t unlikely that Iran uses the terrorist file in a way that makes the West believe that paying attention to the Israeli-Iranian war has allowed the terrorist groups to rearrange their ranks. The US can deal with any war pragmatically if it has ramifications of counterterrorism. Iran can easily supply the AQAP and Al-Shabaab with weapons that enable them to carry out operations against navigation in the Red and Arabian Seas.

The US has undoubtedly exerted strenuous efforts to weaken the Al-Qaeda and won’t allow its return through exploiting its obsession in the latest developments.

The Panel of Experts’ Report

During writing this analysis, a final new report was issued by the Panel of Experts on Yemen affiliated with the UN Security Council. It revealed shocking details about the nature of the intertwined relationship between the Houthis, the AQAP, and Al-Shabaab.

Based on reliable sources, the report confirmed that there is a close strategic alliance between the Houthis and the AQAP. It added: “That opportunistic alliance is characterized by cooperation in security and intelligence, offering safe havens for each other’s members, reinforcing their respective strongholds and coordinating efforts to target the Internationally-Recognized Government’s forces.”. 

The report explained that "Since the beginning of 2024, the two groups have coordinated operations directly with each other. They agreed that the Houthis would transfer four uncrewed aerial vehicles (drones), as well as thermal rockets and explosive devices, and that the Houthis would provide training to AQAP fighters”.

The report pointed out that the cooperation between both parties goes beyond exchanging weapons and training as “they discussed potential support by AQAP in attacks against maritime targets”.[8]

Tahrir Al-Sham

Despite the announced separation by Hayaat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria (formerly known as Jabhat Al-Nusra) from the Al-Qaeda, the Syrian terror group still shares close intellectual and ideological links with the organization. The impact of Al-Qaeda, which considered Jabhat Al-Nusra its branch in Syria, has been ongoing ideologically and operationally. In other words, the declaration about independence from Al-Qaeda came within the context of competition over influence in the region amid the desire to avoid the International Coalition’s airstrikes, but hasn’t led to a real break. The relationship between Tahrir Al-Sham and Al-Qaeda, though undeclared, remains strong. This makes it vulnerable to any changes in the parent organization’s policy, including the stance toward Iran. These organic links make it possible to push Tahrir Al-Sham to take on certain roles in and outside Syria in response to Al-Qaeda's strategic interests. 

Earlier, German news agency ‘dpa‘ cited security sources as saying that an 18-year-old Austrian man, of Bosnian origin, who was killed while attempting to target the Israeli consulate in Munich on September 5, had links with the armed group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham that usually operates in Syria.[9] 

ISIS

Regarding ISIS, 2024 has witnessed a significant escalation in the organization’s activities, especially in the Syrian desert regions This raises questions about the reasons for this sudden renewal in its activity. After the organization carried out only 38 operations in 2023, the number rose significantly to reach 153 during the current year.

This growing escalation has led the US to intensify its military operations against the organization. ‘The Wall Street Journal’ revealed an undisclosed American campaign targeting cells affiliated with ISIS in Syria. This campaign includes airstrikes and providing intelligence support to the Syrian Democratic Forces.[10]

In light of this development, a question is emerging about the real beneficiary behind the growing ISIS activities. Iran, which has a tense relationship with the US and is involved in a war against Israel through its proxies, is apparently the biggest beneficiary from this situation. Observers don’t rule out that Tehran plays an indirect role in supporting the ISIS, especially amid the accurate timing of this escalation.

It is important to state that the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights previously accused Iran and the Assad regime of being behind the return of ISIS. This enhances the hypothesis of the presence of complicated regional dimensions behind this dangerous development.[11]

Conclusion

It is unlikely that Iran may seek to exploit its relationship with Al-Qaeda as a tool to reduce the Israeli military and intelligence pressure on it and its arms. By pushing the Al-Qaeda back to the forefront, Tehran may be able to divert attention from the actions of itself and its proxies in the region as well as direct the attention of the international community towards a new terrorist threat. Despite the emergence of initial indications regarding the implementation of this strategy, the current activities of Al-Qaeda are still not enough to achieve the complete Iranian goals. The coming period may witness an escalation in the activities of Al-Qaeda’s branches as part of this context.