Badr Mohammed (South24)

In the 2006 July war between Israel and Hizballah in south Lebanon, Hizballah survived while Israel withdrew after the United Nation Security Council resolution 1701 (14 Aug 2006). This was seen as a victory to Hizballah due to the asymmetric warfare between the two.

Under the label of "The Divine Victory Day", Hizballah still marking the anniversary of their victory on the date of the international resolution. Despite the tremendous devastation that befell south Lebanon, Arabian gulf states announced their aid and assistance to the Lebanese government in rebuilding what was left by the Israeli war on Lebanon.

The Islamic party in Lebanon took the lead in resisting the "Israeli occupation" and the threats of their commander Hassan Nasrallah has escalated towards Israel. Perhaps the most prominent statement was back in 2016 when he threatened to target an ammonia laboratory located in Israel with missiles. In contrast, a new war and armaments strategy based on intermittent ballistic projectile has been escalating. With ballistic weapons coming into use against Israel, the element of superiority became in the accuracy of monitoring and the length of projectiles. And Finally, the multiplicity of projectiles works on disrupting and failing the Israeli defences in tracking and intercepting the projectiles.

Some Israeli reports talked about Hizballah possession of an arsenal of smart missiles ranging from 500-1000 rockets, in addition to many conventional missiles and other locally developed missiles which has been located in Lebanon. Therefore, the Israeli concern about their accuracy is considered a high priority. 

Last February, " Israel Hayom" newspaper quoted Brigadier General Eran Niv, that "if Hizballah exceeded the ceiling of the amount or the quality of precision weapons, then we will be demanded to take measurements against it. This is a high-calibre decision to make and we won't be able to avoid it"

"Hizballah experience with Israel has been transferred in full detail to Yemen recently, and it has transferred the armament and war system".

The newspaper has also added that the Israeli military invested great efforts in the recent years to prevent the supply of Hizballah with missiles and advanced projectiles and that "a major part of attacks attributed to its air forces in Syria has been directed to thwart and inference precise weapon smuggling to Lebanon.

The newspaper also reported that "high ranking officials believe that Israel has to formulate clear red lines for itself in regards to Hizballah's missiles accuracy project because the talk is about a conventional threat that may reach unprecedented amounts". Officials further stated that "a ceiling of 500-1000 advanced missiles forces Israel to act".

The newspaper also quoted the former head of Israeli military intelligence (Aman) Major General (Res.) Amos Yadlin that "it is necessary to analyze and identify the accurate timing to launch an attack against the accuracy program with the realization that it might lead to a large-scale escalation" and that "the presence of hundreds of advanced missiles in the hands of the Iranian axis, especially in the hands of Hizballah is a strategic threat that cannot be allowed to develop".

All this is happening in a time where Shia groups and parties witness an increasing control expansion in the Arabian region which Iran stands behind. Hizballah experience with Israel has recently been transferred to Yemen in full details, and it has transferred a new armament and war system to the extent that made Houthi group leaders declare that they have a deterrent force used against their domestic and external opponents such as Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia had led an Arab coalition back in March 2015 against the Houthi "coup" against the legitimate president of Yemen Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi and after they took control over the capital city Sana'a in September 2014. From the moment of Sana'a's fall and to the initiating of the Saudi Arabian-led intervention (Operation Storm of Resolve), 6 months have passed and the Houthis' established an airlift with Iran that was sufficient to duplicate the Yemeni version of the Lebanese Hizballah which has shown the capability to target Saudi territory and its strategic facilities and inflict severe damage on them.

Israeli security forces detain a Palestinian man in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah, where looming evictions of Palestinian families have fueled anger, on May 15. (AFP/Getty Images)

War on Gaza... Causes and implications

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza erupted against the background of the latest violent events which took place in Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood in East Jerusalem after Israeli forces stormed Al-Aqsa holy mosque and the bombing of Israeli towns by missiles from Palestinian factions in Gaza which ended by Israel launching a wide range war against the Strip.

These developments in the region came after a historic wave of normalization that swept the region over the past year between Israel and some Arab states. This dangerous escalation can shake the newly-formed relationships and place it in a difficult test. Officials from the United Arab of Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco (all countries that normalized ties with Israel in 2020) have criticized Israeli policies this week. 

According to the Wall Street Journal, Even proponents of the accords recognize the deepening challenge for Israel to win acceptance in a region where its occupation of Palestinian territory is deeply unpopular. [1]

Dr Ofir Winter, a researcher in the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University, says, according to the newspaper, "there are strong foundations to these relationships, but the challenge lies in how the Arab states will explain the cause to their people", considering "this as an escalation which place a difficult test to these newly-formed ties".

In contrast to the Arab position, Iran, Israel's enemy, has condemned the Israeli actions in Jerusalem. Iranian officials saw these events as an opportunity to question the viability of the peace agreements, which Tehran has condemned, because it views them as reinforcing a "new alliance" against it in the region. The Wall Street Journal said that Iran's Foreign Minister called on the international community to take action, at a time when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned the United States of the Abraham Accords Peace Agreement, which he says it has "deceived" Arab states and "empowered" Israel.

Turkey, another major power in the Middle East with a long-standing relationship with Israel, has also tried to mobilize diplomatic efforts to terminate Israeli attacks on Palestinians, according to the newspaper. Ibrahim Kalin, senior adviser to the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in an interview this week that "Islamic countries should live up to the calls of the Palestinian people and use all their leverage and power".

In the meantime, families in Israel and Palestine are paying the heaviest price for this war. Gevorg Mirzayan, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation in an article by Expert magazine stated that "external power seek to exploit the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for their own purposes. At the best circumstances because they can't find a solution and at the worst circumstances because this conflict (and escalating it) corresponds to the national interests of these powers.

Mirzayan has pointed out several international bodies that might have an interest in this conflict. For example, "this alignment is beneficial to those who chosen this side a while ago, and above all, Turkey and Iran". He also saw that this can include Russia. Because "Moocow is part of the Middle East Quartet (that is a foursome of nations and international and supranational entities) involved in mediating the Israeli–Palestinian peace process and acts in context as a mediator".

Recently, Hamas published a promotional advertisement for a "Shihab" suicide plane, which experts said It seems like it is an Iranian Axis of Resistance drone plane (extracted)

Iran which is struggling to obtain a nuclear bomb is engaged in Vienna talks with major international power, regarding its return with Washington to the nuclear deal signed in 2015. Israel has always criticized the American steps for possibly lifting economic sanctions on Tehran.

The Israeli escalation has reached its peak with Iran after a sensitive operation carried out in Tehran last November when Iran's top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated. Israeli media reported that the operation was executed by the Israeli Mossad (part of the Israeli Intelligence Community). The post-operation relationship has witnessed an exchange of escalation between the two sides and on international water where military and commercial ships were repeatedly attacked.

It is likely that Iran has already expanded its map of allies in the region to include groups of political Islam, both Shiite and Sunni, Sunnis such as the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood group. The qualitative improvement of Hamas military capabilities in Gaza cannot be overlooked. It even raised the questions of Israeli spectators' on the effectiveness of the famous Iron Dome defence system.

Recently, Hamas shared an advertisement promo of a suicide aircraft type "Shahab" which Jason Brodsky, policy director of the "United Against Nuclear Iran" organization said "It seems like it is an Iranian Axis of Resistance drone plane". [2]

Former Jordan's Minister of State for Media Affairs, Saleh Al-Qalab, said in a statement for Al Arabiya that Hamas "did not consult the National Authority nor Arab countries before their recent move" but it may have "informed Iran about it". [3]

Badr Mohammed