*Ibrahim Ali (South24) 

Although the evidence on the ground confirms the shrink of AQAP’s strength during the last period, the admission of this by its leader Khalid Batarfi in his latest speech published by Al-Malahem reveals that the degeneration is bigger than expected. 

Moreover, this admission indicates that AQAP’s reading of its current conditions amid the new developments, especially in Abyan and Shabwa governorates, led it to adopt a conviction that what is next is worse. Thus, the group made a public appeal that it needs support. 

Batarfi’s latest speech included the same topics and themes of the previous speech delivered by leader Abu Ali Al-Hadrami except for the “decline” admission. This is very important, especially as it came after the “Arrows of the East” operation by the Southern Forces in Abyan who succeeded in driving the group out of Wadi Oemran in Mudiyah district which was its most important bastion in the governorate.

Batarfi’s video recording, which lasted for 18 minutes, confirms what "South24 Center" mentioned in a previous analysis about the recent escalation in Abyan that this reflects more the group’s current dilemma than being derived from strength or ability to take revenge on its opponents.

The analysis pointed out that the group probably was forced to walk in this road after being expelled from its main strongholds in the governorate. AQAP has likely deployed its elements into small groups in some areas which are able to hide but have limited capabilities. They won’t be able to continue implementing operations at the same pace. 

Begging the tribes' support

AQAP resorted to the tribes asking them for support after admitting that the group suffers from the lack of capabilities and supplies in Abyan, Shabwa and Al-Baydah. The language used by the group in addressing the tribes shows AQAP as if it carries out duties on their behalf. Therefore, Batarfi expressed his resentment towards the stance adopted by some dignitaries and sheikhs. It is important to indicate here that asking the tribes for support came after participating in anti-AQAP operations. Moreover, the way of addressing the tribes in the two messages also indicate that the group is already suffering hard times. No doubt that the group’s recording, which confirms the lack of capabilities, the poor supplies and the need for support, is an unprecedented move in its history. 

Additionally, what can be understood from the speech also is that the decline has not been limited to the level of operational activities but it is also related to the failure to find support and finance resources. This is the most important AQAP’s needs currently and at every stage.

"AQAP’s decline has not been limited to the level of operational activities but it is also related to the failure to find support and finance resources."

Naturally, this can’t be read apart from the latest events in Ataq and the impact of expelling the so-called “Special Forces” from the city on AQAP at more than one level. Therefore, those two AQAP’s latest messages focused on attacking the “Southern Forces” and the Arab Coalition led by KSA and UAE. 

Surely, the group should have reached its current state two or three years ago. However, the control held by forces affiliated with the Islah Party (Muslim Brotherhood’s branch in Yemen) on Shabwa and parts of Abyan delayed that. We are now aware of the context related to AQAP’s defending former Shabwa Governor Mohammed Saleh Bin Adyo and mentioning him by name in the previous speech while criticizing the Southern Forces and the Arab Coalition.

After the group lost its most important lever and source of support in Abyan and Shabwa, it has resorted again to ask the tribes for support. This underscores the importance of repeating the Shabwa and Abyan pattern in Wadi Hadramout. Not making this would mean prolonging AQAP lifetime and saving it in its weakest stage. 

Targeting emotions

During his latest speech, Batarfi was keen to raise the feelings of society by talking about Israeli and American military presence in some governorates. The alleged presence has not been the group’s target but the local Southern Forces which fight AQAP and their Arab Coalition backers. Batarfi depicted these forces as being a tool to legalize what he deemed an “occupation”. Thus, AQAP and the Houthis have the same starting point. The latter has preceded AQAP in resorting to these allegations in order to influence people. Batarfi probably wanted to refute accusations against AQAP of coordinating with the Houthis or benefiting from their media and propaganda approach. Therefore, he severely criticized the Houthis in his latest speech. Furthermore, AQAP attempts to introduce itself as the banner bearer of defending Sunnis when the group talks about the Houthi threat and its role in confronting it. It didn’t forget to defame its foes by doubting their roles in fighting the Houthis. The group wants to say that the war against it is in the Houthi interests in one way or another. This is although the group left Al-Baydah with the first Houthi progress towards Al-Sawmaah and Al-Zahir districts in 2020. 

Batarfi probably wanted to refute accusations against AQAP of coordinating with the Houthis or benefiting from their media and propaganda approach. Therefore, he severely criticized the Houthis in his latest speech.

In the same context of targeting emotions, Batarfi attacked Saudi Arabia and accused it of seeking to sabotage Yemen through the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). He called for rising up against it. In this regard, Batarfi repeated what was included in Abu Ali Al-Hadrami’s speech. 

Relationships with the tribe

Batarfi claimed that the Southern forces failed to drive a wedge between AQAP and the tribes. In fact, AQAP needs first to confirm its relationship with the tribes before talking about the failure of its rivals in targeting it. Weeks earlier, the group warned the tribes of participating in operations against it. AQAP can’t deliver such a message to those with whom it has close ties. In its latest recording, the group didn’t hide its resentment towards the stance adopted by some dignitaries and sheikhs. This means that what Batarfi said about AQAP’s relationships with the tribes is actually nonsense. 

More than just an operation (Arrows of the East)

Logically, everything included in Batarfi’s latest speech including the "decline" admission, appealing the tribes for support and criticizing the Southern Forces and the Arab Coalition states was basically a result of the latest military and security operations against it in Abyan and Shabwa.

Although AQAP’s decline began years ago, the achievements of these operations in a short time were significant, influential and decisive. However, what is more important is the two governorates’ preparation for them by alienating AQAP’s allies and backers. 

Following the Ataq events in last August, there has been an acceleration of AQAP’s collapse in Shabwa and Abyan to a level that pushed its leader to publicly admit it and ask for support.