As Yemen’s conflict continues to evolve, the prospect of a Two-State solution may emerge as the most viable path forward.

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Dr Abdul Galil Shaif (South24 Center)

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Yemen's prolonged conflict has been shaped by a complex interplay of local, regional, and international actors, with the Houthi movement occupying a central role in these dynamics. The Houthis' intransigence, especially concerning peace negotiations and their non-cooperation with international bodies like the United Nations and NGOs, has emerged as a significant roadblock in the pursuit of a peaceful resolution. As the war drags on, the humanitarian crisis worsens, exacerbated by Houthi actions that leverage human rights violations for political advantage. Meanwhile, the rise of Southern aspiration of having their own South State, particularly among the Southern Transitional Council (STC), is shifting Yemen’s future, with the prospect of a Two-State solution looking increasingly likely.

Houthi Aggression: A Strategic Tool for Negotiations

The Houthis' refusal to meaningfully engage with the international community has become a core obstacle to peace in Yemen. Central to this is their treatment of international organizations and their workers. Numerous reports have exposed cases of arbitrary arrests, harassment, and even detention of UN staff and NGOs operating in Houthi-controlled areas. These incidents have hindered the efforts of humanitarian organizations in providing aid to a population that desperately depends on international assistance.

These Houthi actions, however, are not isolated incidents of aggression. They appear to be a calculated strategy aimed at strengthening the Houthis' bargaining position. By controlling the flow of humanitarian aid to Yemen, and attacking ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the Houthis are seeking to position themselves as gatekeepers, using aid as a bargaining chip in negotiations and trying to convince their supporters of their importance. Through such coercive and opportunistic tactics the Houthis are seeking to force the international community to engage with the Iran-backed militia on their terms, thereby muddling the peace negotiations and reinforcing their leverage at the dialogue table.

This aggressive approach also sends a clear message that the Houthis are willing to challenge the norms of international diplomacy and humanitarianism to achieve their goals. The Houthis have entrenched their hold over northern Yemen, and refuse to compromise on key issues, such as control over strategic territories and recognition of their authority. Their hard-line stance has been bolstered by the overt and covert support they receive from Iran, complicating the regional power dynamics surrounding the conflict.

Unintended Consequences: 

While the Houthis likely view their transgressions as a tool to consolidate power, these tactics are inadvertently fuelling new dynamics in Yemen’s fractured landscape, particularly in the South. As the Houthis solidify control in the North and remain unyielding in negotiations, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and other groups advocating for Southern independence have seized the moment to press their cause at the regional and international level.

The dragging Yemen conflict and the capitulation to the Houthis’ unceasing economic demands at the cost of the oil-rich South, has led to deep resentment among the Southerners, fanning their desire to break free. Southerners feel the unification project of Yemen in 1990 ignored their political and cultural identity. The STC, which has successfully battled to evict the terror outfit Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) from its strongholds in key Southern governorates, now militarily controls significant portions of South Yemen, and protects the areas from further inroads by the AQAP. In its endeavour to ensure the Southern people are given their due rights and economic benefits, the STC has emerged as the leading force behind the push for independence of the South. With the Southerners fully aware of how their legitimate interests and rights have been continuously ignored and trampled over for the past three decades, the idea that they would engage in a unified state with the Houthis has become unthinkable.

With the Internationally Recognized Yemeni Government weakened by internal political struggles and clearly unable to stem the Houthi advances to seize more territory, the STC and like-minded Southern groups have moved to consolidate their territorial control and build support for Southern autonomy. The division of Yemen into two distinct political entities—the Houthi-controlled North and the increasingly autonomous South—is becoming a tangible reality on the ground. A reality the international community needs to understand and work with as the basis for negotiations.

A Two-State Solution: An Opportunity for the International Community?

As Yemen becomes more fragmented, the idea of a Two-State solution is gaining traction. Rather than continuing to pursue a unified Yemen that does not exist in reality —an increasingly unlikely prospect given the entrenched positions of the Houthis and the Southern aspirations—the international community could explore supporting an independent Southern State as a counterbalance to the Houthi regime in the North.

A Two-State solution presents several advantages. First, it acknowledges the realities on the ground: Yemen is already divided along political, military, and regional lines. The Houthis, with their stronghold in the North, are unwilling to relinquish power. Any attempt to force a unified solution would simply prolong the conflict indefinitely.

Second, an independent Southern State could serve as a counterweight to the Houthis. The international community, by supporting the creation of a Southern State, could help foster a government more aligned with democratic norms and international principles. Such a state could become a cornerstone of stability in the region, offering a platform for governance, economic development, and address the humanitarian crisis in the South.

Moreover, a Southern State could forge stronger alliances with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These Gulf states have a vested interest in curbing Iranian influence in Yemen, and by aligning with the South, they could help counterbalance the growing influence of the Houthis in the North. Moreover, a Southern State could prevent Yemen from becoming a staging ground for Iranian-backed activities, thereby addressing regional security concerns.

Challenges and Risks

Despite its inherent advantages, a Two-State solution is also fraught with risks. The creation of a Southern State could exacerbate existing divisions within the South itself, with various factions and tribes vying for power. In the absence of a strong and unified political leadership, the South could descend into internal conflict, further destabilizing the region. Keeping this in mind, the STC has developed its political and military structures in order to be inclusive, and is viewed by many Southerners as their representative in any future negotiations.

Moreover, the Houthis are unlikely to accept the creation of a Southern State without a fight. The prospect of renewed conflict between the North and the South could lead to even greater instability, with the risk of a prolonged and bloody civil war. Additionally, a Two-State solution would require significant international support—diplomatic, economic, and military—to ensure the South can stand on its own. 

Conclusion

The Houthis’ intransigence and their scheming to extract mileage from their aggression on personnel of international humanitarian organizations have complicated the peace process path in Yemen. While these actions may provide short-term leverage to the Houthis in negotiations, they are on the contrary contributing to the rise of stronger aspirations for a Southern State and thereby to the increasing possibility of a Two-State solution.

For the international community, this evolving situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Supporting the creation of an independent Southern State could offer a way to counterbalance Houthi power in the North, providing a more stable foundation for governance in at least part of Yemen. However, such a solution would require careful planning and robust international support to ensure its success.

As Yemen’s conflict continues to evolve, the prospect of a Two-State solution may emerge as the most viable path forward. It offers the potential for an end to years of war and humanitarian suffering and a new strategy for regional stability. While the road ahead is fraught with challenges, the pursuit of a Two-State solution may present the best opportunity for lasting peace in a fractured and war-torn Yemen.