By adopting this strategy, the organization seeks to affect the social balance and sow doubts within the tribal fabric. This is along with trying to present itself as a party that protects the interests of the local society.

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Ibrahim Ali* (South24)

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The governorate of Abyan in South Yemen has witnessed a qualitative shift in the nature of the conflict between Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Southern armed forces. The intelligence sphere has come to dominate events amid the escalation in the battle field confrontations and the media war campaigns. Such a transformation clearly reflects adoption of a new strategy by the organization with an aim to impact the security and social scene in the region.

 

The Media War: A Misinformation and Influence Tool

In a move that aims to enhance its media narrative, the AQAP recently released a video that featured alleged confessions by a “spy” working on behalf of the UAE and the Southern forces. According to the organization, this person, named Wahb Jawas, was responsible for submitting information that led to the killing of two prominent AQAP leaders, Saeed Bin Ahmed Bin Khamis Al-Kadhimi and Shaker Bin Saleh Bin Shoib Al-Kadhimi. The video is part of the organization’s campaign to vilify their opponents and garner more supporters by hitting at the grassroot associations built by the Southern forces in Abyan.

This move is an attempt to inwardly carry psychological and strategic dimensions. On the one hand, the AQAP is trying to build the idea that its foes rely on a network of local agents, in a way that deepens doubts within the local communities. On the other hand, it aims to counter any popular collaborations with the Southern forces by depicting the agents as traitors who deserve punishment.

In a remarkable field development, the AQAP announced it was responsible for targeting¹ what it described as a “drone operation center” in Mudiyah district. According to the organization, the attack was based on the local peoples’ “reports”. This description reveals the organization’s attempt to depict itself as a party close to the local community in an attempt to woo the tribes and mitigate their possible response.

This attack is closely related to the AQAP’s execution of the alleged spy, Wahb Jawas, who they accused of spying on behalf of the Southern forces. This move apparently aims to draw a link between the execution and the AQAP’s field operations. This aims to justify the execution to the tribes and not to fuel social tension. Throughout this approach, the AQAP is seeking to strike a balance between the escalation of its terrorist operations, and seeking to achieve a minimum popular acceptance.

Distorting Facts and Manipulating Narratives 

The “spy” video reveals the AQAP’s modus operandi of exploiting such alleged confessions as a tool to enhance its narrative, especially in light of its  complicated ties with the people of Abyan. By adopting this strategy, the organization seeks to affect the social balance and sow doubts within the tribal fabric. This is along with trying to present itself as a party that protects the interests of the local society.

While the alleged participation of a local in spying on behalf of the Southern forces that battle the organization can be justified as a desire to eradicate its influence, the AQAP has sought to build its own narrative by depicting the person as a traitor. According to the AQAP, they learnt about the alleged spy when a local reported about the informant during the latter’s attempt to plant an explosive device. This narrative by the organization aims to convey the impression that cooperating with the AQAP is common among the local community.

In addition to releasing the “confessions” by the alleged spy, the AQAP has sought to expand the threat circle to include the security of the local residents by accusing one of their own members, Wahb Jawas, of planting an explosive device in a public area. By doing so, the AQAP is trying to portray the episode as a direct threat against the whole society, not just the organization. This narrative aims to justify the execution of Jawas as being necessary to protect the people as well as enhance the “common solidarity” discourse between the organization and the local community against what is being depicted as a common threat. Furthermore, the AQAP’s drawing a link between executing “the informant” and protecting the society reflects an attempt by the organization of taking a proactive step against any likely tribal response to the execution.

Counter Campaign

Moreover, the organization's attempt, through Jawas, to accuse the UAE of cooperating with the Houthis is part of its media endeavor to steer the public opinion and avoid a violent tribal response to the execution. By linking the espionage to two regional foes such as the UAE and the Houthis, the AQAP is seeking to transform the issue from being a local conflict to a wider regional one.

The AQAP’s accusations come as part of a counter propaganda campaign that aims to distract attention away from the latest UN report that confirms the organization’s cooperation with the Houthis in South Yemen through coordinating with Iran. This growing relationship may open the space for the Houthis to penetrate the AQAP’s security structure and direct its operations in a way that serves the political and regional agendas away from the direct confrontation between the two parties.

In this regard, the AQAP has remarkably not launched any operations against the Houthis since 2022, according to Elisabeth Kendall, a researcher specializing in armed groups affairs. This is in addition to the AQAP’s sudden withdrawal from its strongholds in Al-Bayda in favor of the Houthis in the same year. These indications probably reflect a strategic transformation in the relationship between the two parties. It may refer to common interests that go beyond their ideological differences. 

The AQAP has long sought to exploit sectarian divisions, presenting itself as the one that defends Southern areas against the Houthi expansion. However, the growing information about the AQAP’s notorious relationship with Iran starkly contradicts with the image it seeks to entrench. In an attempt to cover up these contradictions, the organization has accused the UAE of coordinating with the Houthis. This aims to hurt the credibility of the Arab Coalition-backed Southern forces. Through these allegations, the organization also seeks to vilify its foes and undermine their position among the locals. This is along with escalating the sectarian and political discourse to stir chaos and regain its influence amid the growing challenges facing it. 

 

Regardless of the video's authenticity, it is also reflective of the fact that the AQAP is infiltrated by several parties. While pointing to the thwarting of espionage operations against it and the arrest of spies, conversely it also reflects an implicit confession of the existence of deep security loopholes within the organization. This raises serious questions about the AQAP's ability to protect its secrets and guarantee its internal security. Additionally, this obviously reflects the success of the security and military operations of the Southern forces as well as the local community’s movement against the AQAP in Abyan and Shabwa governorates. 

The Dilemma of the AQAP

The AQAP is facing a growing strategic dilemma that is reflected in the drastic changes in the nature of the forces that fight it today. In the past, the organization exploited tribal divisions and doubts regarding the central army affiliated with the Yemeni regime in Sanaa to enhance its influence and consolidate its presence. However, the emergence of the Southern armed forces, comprising mainly of locals in the areas where AQAP is active, has constituted a decisive transformation in that regard. These armed forces, that enjoy wide social acceptance due to their local affiliation, have weakened the organization's ability to exploit tribal disputes and local tensions in its favor.

In response to this challenge, the AQAP has begun to rely on media and political tactics with an aim to destabilize the social coherence of the Southern forces and sow discord among the tribes. Moreover, the organization uses systematic propaganda, targeting the legitimacy and goals of the Southern forces through repeated accusations of their being a foreign tool in the hands of the UAE, describing them as “UAE's mercenaries” that seek to eliminate “the Islamic project”. In the latest video, the AQAP claimed that the Southern forces coordinate with the Houthis and carry out disruptive operations, including targeting mosques, as stated by citizen Jawas in the video. 

Despite lacking concrete evidence, these accusations aim to distort the image of the Southern forces and undermine their position among the conservative local society. This is in addition to creating community divisions to reduce the effectiveness of these forces that have fought the AQAP on the ground, inflicting heavy losses to it over the past years.

A History of Infiltration

Back to the espionage video; It is important to state that the latest penetration inside the AQAP constitutes a new episode in a long series of successful complicated intelligence operations against the organization. Past years have witnessed a remarkable sequence of qualitative operations targeting the AQAP leaders at different levels, from top to bottom. 

These on-target operations, which were often carried out away from the traditional armed operations, have revealed the ability of the international intelligence agencies to penetrate the AQAP's most fortified circles and access its solid core.  As a result of these consecutive blows, the organization has lost a large part of its experienced leaders. This has weakened its planning and implementation ability and directly impacted its internal cohesion. 

Related: The Secret Weapon: The Role of Electronic Espionage in Counterterrorism in Yemen 

This shift in the path of the conflict indicates that the war against the organization is now being fought at the intelligence-espionage level and that the AQAP is trying to respond by launching terrorist operations and a media war. This has put the Southern forces in the face of a double challenge -- to confront the AQAP's threat in the battle field as well as enhance its trust among the local society. This will help block the AQAP’s attempts to exploit any security or social vacuum.

In light of this, it can be said that the AQAP has probably sought to achieve the following goals by the alleged “spy” video:

- Intimidating people: The organization is seeking to intimidate local people to deter them from cooperating with the Southern forces opposing it through depicting this as a treachery that deserves punishment. 

- Vilifying foes: The organization aims to weaken the image of the Southern forces by depicting them as entities that don't enjoy any popular support with an aim to undermine their credibility.

- Divert attention away from its relationship with Iran: The organization seeks to direct the same accusations against its local and regional foes in an attempt to distract from the reality of its now-exposed relationship with Iran and the Houthi militia.

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¹ A press release by AQAP seen by 'South24 Center' on 20/11/2024.